与FT共进午餐

Former Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg: ‘So far, we have called Putin’s bluff’
前北约主席延斯•斯托尔滕贝格:“到目前为止,我们已经揭穿了普京的虚张声势”

The Norwegian politician on his decade as a KGB contact, crossing Russia’s red lines — and what comes next for Ukraine
这位挪威政治家讲述他作为克格勃联系人的十年、越过俄罗斯的红线--以及乌克兰的下一步行动。

Utøya is shrouded in fog as Jens Stoltenberg and I board the ferry from the mainland.

当延斯•斯托尔滕贝格(Jens Stoltenberg)和我从大陆登上渡轮时,于特岛(Utøya)被雾气笼罩。

The small forested island just outside of Oslo is a deeply personal place for Stoltenberg, who spent his teenage summers here. Later, as Norway’s prime minister, he led the country in mourning a far-right terrorist attack on Utøya that shocked the world. 

奥斯陆外的这个小森林岛对于斯托尔滕贝格来说是一个非常个人化的地方,他在这里度过了青少年时期的夏天。后来,作为挪威首相,他带领全国人民哀悼了震惊世界的于特岛极右翼恐怖袭击事件。

We’re lunching because this week, the 65-year-old ended a decade as the sober, metronomic leader of the world’s most powerful military alliance. US-led Nato — 32 nations accounting for 55 per cent of global military spending — has underpinned European security for 75 years.

我们共进午餐是因为本周,现年65岁的斯托尔滕贝格结束了作为世界上最强大军事联盟的冷静、有节奏的领导人十年的任期。以美国为首的北约——32个国家占全球军事开支的55%——75年来一直是欧洲安全的支柱。

Since February 2022, he had three simultaneous tasks: supporting Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s invasion, warning western publics of the threat posed by President Vladimir Putin, and avoiding the nuclear Armageddon of conflict with Moscow.

自2022年2月以来,他同时肩负着三项任务:支持乌克兰抵御俄罗斯的入侵,警告西方公众弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)总统构成的威胁,以及避免与莫斯科发生核大战的冲突。

Prioritising de-escalation cuts both ways. As Ukraine has pleaded for a no-fly zone and for Nato’s cutting-edge defences to shoot down Russian missiles, Stoltenberg has also been the voice of Kyiv’s disappointment. 

优先考虑缓和局势是双向的。乌克兰请求设立禁飞区,并要求北约的尖端防御系统击落俄罗斯导弹,斯托尔滕贝格也表达了基辅的失望之情。

“If there’s anything I in a way regret and see much more clearly now is that we should have provided Ukraine with much more military support much earlier,” he says, speaking slowly and carefully. “I think we all have to admit, we should have given them more weapons pre-invasion. And we should have given them more advanced weapons, faster, after the invasion. I take my part of the responsibility.”

“如果说有什么事情让我感到遗憾,并且现在看得更清楚的话,那就是我们应该更早地向乌克兰提供更多的军事支持,”他说得很慢很谨慎。“我认为我们都必须承认,我们应该在入侵前给他们更多的武器。而且在入侵后,我们应该更快地给他们更先进的武器。我承担我的责任。”

Stoltenberg, dressed casually in trainers and polo shirt, takes big strides along the rough paths from the island’s pebbled beach. “Sending lethal weapons was a big discussion. Most allies were against that, pre-invasion . . . they were very afraid of the consequences,” he adds. “I’m proud of what we have done, but it would have been a great advantage if it started earlier. It maybe could even have prevented the invasion, or at least made it much harder for [Russia] to do what they’ve done.”

斯托尔滕贝格穿着休闲的运动鞋和Polo衫,从岛上的卵石滩沿着崎岖的小路大步前行。他补充道:“派遣致命武器是一个很大的讨论。大多数盟友在入侵前都反对这样做……他们非常担心后果。我为我们所做的一切感到自豪,但如果我们能更早地开始行动,那将是一个巨大的优势。它甚至可能阻止入侵,或者至少让(俄罗斯)更难做到他们所做的事情。”

We’re eating in a small private dining room above Utøya’s cafeteria, a wooden building perched in the centre of the island used to feeding hundreds of children who still visit each year for summer camps and educational seminars on fighting extremism.

我们正在于特岛食堂楼上的一个小型私人餐厅用餐,这是一座位于岛中心的木制建筑,每年为数百名前来参加夏令营和反极端主义教育研讨会的儿童提供食物。

Stoltenberg was born firmly into Norway’s political elite. His father, Thorvald, was a pillar of the dominant Labour party, and was defence minister when Stoltenberg did his mandatory military service. He grew up around politics and power: Nelson Mandela once came to his house for breakfast.

斯托尔滕贝格出生于挪威的政治精英家庭。他的父亲托尔瓦尔德是占主导地位的工党(Labour party)的支柱,在斯托尔滕贝格服义务兵役时担任国防部长。他在政治和权力的氛围中长大:纳尔逊•曼德拉(Nelson Mandela)曾来他家吃早餐。

An energetic leftwing activist as a teenager, his anti-Americanism had moderated by the time he was elected leader of the Labour-affiliated Workers’ Youth League (AUF) at 26. Eight years later, in 1993, he was a minister, winning the premiership in 2000. His first administration, marked by liberal reforms such as the privatisation of major state-run enterprises, lasted just 19 months.

作为一名充满活力的左翼活动家,他在青少年时期的反美主义在他26岁当选工党附属的工人青年联盟(AUF)领导人时已经缓和。八年后的1993年,他成为了一名部长,并在2000年赢得了总理职位。他的第一个政府以自由改革为特点,如对主要国有企业的私有化,但仅持续了19个月。

“If you judge it by the typical political standards, it was a total disaster,” he recollects. “But in terms of what we got done, it was a big success.”

“如果按照典型的政治标准来评判,那是彻底的灾难,”他回忆道。“但就我们所完成的事情而言,那是一次巨大的成功。”



Our food has been pre-selected: a platter overflowing with smoked salmon, ham, cured truffle sausage, potato salad and cheeses. I begin by asking about the terror attack that his closest friends say defined his political career.

我们的食物已经预先选好了:一盘满满的熏鲑鱼、火腿、腌松露香肠、土豆沙拉和奶酪。我首先问起了那次恐怖袭击,他最亲密的朋友说那次袭击定义了他的政治生涯。

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