中美战略对话

US-China: Shifting sands
寻找应对中国崛起的“B方案”


美国关于中国问题的辩论似乎出现了明显转向。华盛顿不仅对北京雄心勃勃的外交政策感到惊慌,也对究竟应该如何应对中国日益增长的影响力不知所措。基于这种担忧,美国各界都在紧锣密鼓地寻找“B方案”。

The satellite images of bright strips of sand rising from turquoise waters and surrounded by an intricate network of support ships struck a nerve around the globe. The man-made islands vividly showed China’s slow-motion efforts to assert more control in the South China Sea but, more than that, they represented a direct challenge to the US which has long policed a waterway crucial to the global economy.

一张张卫星图显示出蓝绿色海水中隆起的耀眼沙带以及四周由各种辅助船只构成的复杂网络,这些图像触动了全世界的神经。这些人造岛屿形象地展示了中国在南中国海确立更多控制权的渐进努力,但更重要的是,它们象征着对美国的直接挑战,后者长期以来一直维护着对全球经济至关重要的一条航道的安全。

The images, released in April by the Washington-based think-tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, have contributed to a distinctive shift in the American debate about China. Washington is starting to sound rattled. Not only is the US alarmed at Beijing’s ambitious foreign policy, whether in the South China Sea or the launch of its own international banks, but there is also a creeping fear that America is no longer sure about how to cope with Beijing’s growing influence.

华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)今年4月发布的这些图像,促使美国关于中国问题的辩论明显转向。华盛顿开始显露出惊慌失措。美国不仅对北京雄心勃勃的外交政策感到担心(无论是在南中国海问题上还是在中国推出自己主导的国际银行方面),而且还有一种潜在的担忧,即美国对于如何应对中国日益增长的影响力不再确定了。

“The consensus of 35 years and five administrations about how to deal with China is fraying so severely that we have lost confidence in the fundamental underpinnings of US-China policy,” says Frank Jannuzi, former Asia adviser to John Kerry and now head of the Mansfield Foundation, a Washington think-tank. “So people are beginning to look for a new approach.”

“过去35年、五届政府关于如何与中国打交道的共识被如此严重地瓦解,以至于我们已经对美中政策的根本基础失去信心,”约翰•克里(John Kerry)的前亚洲事务幕僚、现任华盛顿智库曼斯菲尔德基金会(Mansfield Foundation)负责人的季浩丰(Frank Jannuzi)说,“所以,人们开始寻找新的路径。”

A decade ago Robert Zoellick, then the deputy secretary of state, summed up the relaxed confidence with which the US viewed China’s rise when he urged Beijing to become a “responsible stakeholder” in a US-led world. Instead of a “responsible stakeholder”, however, many in Washington now see a rival with increasingly sharp elbows and a plan to squeeze the US out of Asia.

10年前,时任副国务卿罗伯特•佐利克(Robert Zoellick)敦促北京成为美国所领导世界中的一个“负责任的利益相关者”,这一举动集中体现出美国当时对中国崛起抱有放松的自信态度。然而,如今华盛顿许多人士看到的不是一个“负责任的利益相关者”,而是一个胳膊肘越来越硬的竞争对手和一项要将美国挤出亚洲的计划。

The White House is still committed to an approach that involves engaging China and hedging against its increasing military power. It will emphasise the potential for co-operation when the two governments meet in Washington this week for an annual summit, known as the strategic and economic dialogue.

白宫仍坚持既与中国保持接触、又对冲其日益增长的军事实力的策略。美中两国政府名为“战略与经济对话”(strategic and economic dialogue)的年度峰会已于本周在华盛顿召开,白宫在会上应会强调双方合作的潜力。

But among the former officials, analysts and think-tanks who set the tone for the broader Washington debate, there is an urgent search for a plan B. The proposals range from major military spending to cutting a grand bargain with Beijing but they are all rooted in a fear that the status quo cannot hold.

但在为华盛顿更大范围的辩论定下基调的前政府官员、分析师及智库中,对“B方案”的寻找正在紧锣密鼓地进行。他们的建议各式各样,从进行重大军事支出到与北京方面达成一笔大交易,但这些建议都植根于对现状无法再维持的担忧。

Mr Zoellick, an adviser to Jeb Bush’s presidential campaign, thinks the extent of the Chinese challenge to the US-led system is sometimes overstated, noting Beijing’s constructive role during the financial crisis. But he acknowledges that “it is one of these fluid periods and the United States has lost the initiative on a lot of these issues”.

担任杰布•布什(Jeb Bush)总统竞选顾问的佐利克认为,中国对美国所领导体系的挑战程度有时被夸大了,并指出北京在金融危机期间发挥了建设性作用。但他承认,“眼下是个不稳定的时期,而美国在很多这些问题上已经失去了主动权”。

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