新兴市场

China poses the biggest danger to EM rally
新兴市场明年雄风再起?


新兴市场今夏遭遇大幅下跌。单独来看,美联储加息及中国经济增长放缓都对新兴市场上行构成巨大的挑战。但二者相比之下,一些分析师认为,中国所带来的风险更为严重。

Will emerging markets make a comeback in 2014? It may seem unlikely given the losses seen during the summer, but some strategists and fund managers think so.

新兴市场是否会在2014年雄风再起?鉴于新兴市场今年夏季大幅下跌,这似乎是不太可能的,但一些策略师和基金经理却不这么认为。

Investor nervousness sparked by the US government shutdown and looming debt ceiling have capped the gains of stocks, bonds and currencies in the developing world, but September was nonetheless a positive month for most markets.

美国政府关闭以及债务上限将被突破的威胁,激起了投资者的紧张情绪,并限制了新兴市场中的股票、债券以及外汇资产涨幅,但9月份几乎所有的市场都出现了上涨行情。

And many analysts have turned “tactically bullish” on emerging markets since the Federal Reserve last month unexpectedly delayed its decision to taper monetary stimulus, predicting healthy gains once the uncertainty is lifted.

上个月,美联储(Federal Reserve)出乎意料地决定暂缓退出货币刺激政策,导致很多分析师对新兴市场转持“技术性看多”观点,并预计新兴市场将在不确定性消除后健康上行。

Nonetheless, some money managers and economists spy worrying storm clouds on the distant horizon, which could make this summer’s “taper tantrum” seem like a spring breeze.

不过,一些基金经理和经济学家注意到了远处地平线上令人担忧的风暴云团,和它比起来,今年夏季“量化宽松政策退出引发的市场动荡”就像是和煦的春风。

The debate on how and when QE will end is arguably a distraction from the more important fact that at some point the Fed will lift its actual benchmark interest rate.

有关量化宽松将于何时以及以何种方式退出的讨论,在某种程度上分散了人们对于一个更重要事实的关注,即美联储将在某个时点提高实际基准利率。

Moreover, China’s long boom is likely to fizzle out as Beijing attempts to rebalance its economy away from exports and debt-fuelled investments.

此外,中国持续多年的经济高速增长很可能逐渐放缓,因为中国政府试图摆脱依靠出口和放债投资推动的增长模式,实现经济结构再平衡。

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