How can an investor tell if a bank is heading for danger? In the past five years, analysts have proposed all manner of financial measures. But why not analyse the words of the person running the bank? Researchers have been looking at the speech patterns of leaders such as British politicians and bank chief executives. And this has revealed a point that we instinctively know but often forget: power not only goes to the head, but also to the tongue.
投资者如何判断银行是否面临危险？过去五年里，分析师们为此提出了各种财务度量方法。不过，为什么不直接分析那些管理银行的人说的话呢？研究人员正在研究英国政治人物和银行首席执行官这类领导人的措辞规律。这一研究披露了我们直觉上知道，却常常遗忘的一点：权力不仅会影响人的头脑，还会影响人的舌头。
More specifically, when leaders become hubristic, it generates what psychologists call “linguistic biomarkers”. Hubris has long fascinated poets, philosophers and political scientists. Four years ago David Owen, a former British foreign minister who happens also to be a psychiatrist, tried to give the idea a firmer framework by listing 14 markers of hubris. He examined dozens of British and US politicians over the past century and concluded that some leaders (such as the former British prime ministers Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair) had succumbed to hubris in office. Others (such as John Major) had not.
更具体地说，当领导人变得傲慢时，这种态度会产生心理学家所称的“语言的生物标志”。长期以来，诗人、哲学家和政治科学家对傲慢都十分感兴趣。四年前，精神病医生出身的英国前外交大臣戴维•欧文(David Owen)试图通过列出14个傲慢的标志来赋予这个想法更扎实的框架。他对过去100年来几十位英美政界人士进行了考察，得出的结论是部分领导人（比如英国前首相玛格丽特•撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher)和托尼•布莱尔(Tony Blair)）在任时有傲慢的毛病。而其他人（比如英国前首相约翰•梅杰(John Major)）则没有这个问题。