Some months ago, I was discussing the euro crisis with a high-ranking US diplomat. “It’s back to the 1930s, isn’t it?” said my companion with a mixture of gloom and relish.
“The extremists are on the rise.”
After the Italian elections, these doom-laden predictions are redoubling. The Spectator, a British magazine, has labelled Beppe Grillo as “Italy’s new Mussolini”. Even some Italian commentators have made the same comparison.
That is not just unfair on Mr Grillo, a comedian whose Five Star Movement has just scooped up 25 per cent of the vote. It is also a misreading of how European politics are likely to develop, under conditions of economic stress. The temptation is to argue that because the Depression of the 1930s led to the rise of fascists and communists, the current economic crisis will provoke a similar flight to the far right and the far left.
There are a few similarities between Europe then and now. As in the 1930s, a financial crash, followed by austerity policies, has led to high unemployment. Once again, new political movements are springing up that heap scorn on the governing class. But dig a little deeper and the comparisons seem superficial. When the Depression arrived in Europe, only 12 years had passed since the continent had suffered the horrors of the first world war. About 40 per cent of French and German men aged 19-21 in 1914 were killed in the next four years. Italy also suffered terrible casualties. Overall, more than 10m soldiers died in Europe. Millions more were mutilated.