Some months ago, I was discussing the euro crisis with a high-ranking US diplomat. “It’s back to the 1930s, isn’t it?” said my companion with a mixture of gloom and relish.
几个月前，我与一名美国高级外交官谈到欧元危机。这名外交官的语气喜忧掺半：“形势回到了上世纪30年代，不是吗？极端主义者正在崛起。”
“The extremists are on the rise.”
意大利大选结束后，此类悲观论调声势更大了。英国杂志《旁观者》(The Spectator)将贝佩•格里洛(Beppe Grillo)比作“意大利的又一个墨索里尼”。甚至一些意大利评论人士也拿两人作类比。
After the Italian elections, these doom-laden predictions are redoubling. The Spectator, a British magazine, has labelled Beppe Grillo as “Italy’s new Mussolini”. Even some Italian commentators have made the same comparison.
这种论调不仅冤枉了带领五星运动(Five Star Movement)拿下25%选票的喜剧演员格里洛，还误判了经济不景气下欧洲政治的可能走向。人们容易这样认为：上世纪30年代的大萧条(Depression)曾导致法西斯主义和共产主义兴起，因此，当前的经济危机也会导致极右和极左势力迅速崛起。
That is not just unfair on Mr Grillo, a comedian whose Five Star Movement has just scooped up 25 per cent of the vote. It is also a misreading of how European politics are likely to develop, under conditions of economic stress. The temptation is to argue that because the Depression of the 1930s led to the rise of fascists and communists, the current economic crisis will provoke a similar flight to the far right and the far left.
那时的欧洲与如今确实有一些相似之处。为解决金融危机而推出的紧缩政策导致失业率居高不下，这一点与上世纪30年代的情况一样。另外，新的政治运动如雨后春笋般涌现，这些运动对统治阶层极尽讽刺之能事。但只要稍微深入挖掘，就能发现这种类比非常肤浅。大萧条降临欧洲之时，一战的恐怖记忆仅过去12年。在1914年那一年已年满19岁但不到22岁的德国和法国男性，有40%在接下来的四年中丧生。意大利也伤亡惨重。在欧洲，总共有超过1000万名士兵丧生，伤残人数则更多。
There are a few similarities between Europe then and now. As in the 1930s, a financial crash, followed by austerity policies, has led to high unemployment. Once again, new political movements are springing up that heap scorn on the governing class. But dig a little deeper and the comparisons seem superficial. When the Depression arrived in Europe, only 12 years had passed since the continent had suffered the horrors of the first world war. About 40 per cent of French and German men aged 19-21 in 1914 were killed in the next four years. Italy also suffered terrible casualties. Overall, more than 10m soldiers died in Europe. Millions more were mutilated.
阿道夫•希特勒(Adolf Hitler)和贝尼托•墨索里尼(Benito Mussolini)都曾参加一战，两人领导的运动也深受一战影响。墨索里尼于上世纪20年代上台，那时大萧条甚至还无踪无影。上世纪30年代，在欧洲缺乏准备的情况下，大萧条全面爆发。欧洲当时尚未确立福利国家制度，因此失业往往意味着贫困和饥饿。