欧元区

The eurozone’s three deadly sins
欧元区的三宗罪


汇丰首席经济学家简世勋:德国成了“最后一个屹立不倒的人”,其他欧元区国家则都倒在了致命的“三宗罪”之下:乐观主义、不作为和疏忽。

Friday’s actions from Standard and Poor’s were hardly the biggest surprise in the financial universe: the ratings agency warned in December that eurozone nations were in danger of being downgraded.

标准普尔(Standard and Poor’s)上周五的举动对金融界来说算不上最让人惊讶的事情:该评级机构去年12月就警告过,欧元区国家有被降级的危险。

Germany is, in effect, the last man standing. Others have succumbed to a mixture of three deadly sins: optimism, inaction and omission.

德国事实上成了“最后一个屹立不倒的人”,其他国家则都倒在了致命的“三宗罪”之下:乐观主义、不作为和疏忽。

Too many countries are too optimistic about recovery when all the evidence is now pointing towards a eurozone-wide recession. Contracting output will only exacerbate the revenue shortfalls which have already placed countries on unsustainable fiscal paths.

太多国家都对复苏抱着太过乐观的态度,尽管当前所有证据都预示着欧元区将整体陷入衰退。收入不足已经把各国推上了不可持续的财政道路,而经济产出收缩只会使收入缺口进一步扩大。

Inaction is, perhaps, inevitable for politicians faced with a difficult trade-off between political expediency and fiscal reality. France, for example, needs to deliver austerity to bring its primary deficit back under control – and also to persuade its eurozone colleagues that Paris is serious about fiscal discipline – yet Nicolas Sarkozy hopes also to win the presidential election this spring.

对于在政治权宜之计和财政现实之间进行艰难取舍的政客们来说,不作为或许是不可避免的。比如说,法国需要推行紧缩措施,使基本赤字回落到可控水平,同时还要使欧元区的伙伴国相信,法国政府正在认真对待财政纪律问题,但与此同时,尼古拉•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)也希望在今年春季的总统大选中获得连任。

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