If markets are supposed to reflect the balance of fear and greed, why do so few of them reflect a widespread fear that US politicians are about to provoke a default? In the Treasury markets, which would be directly affected, 10-year yields remain below 3 per cent, their decades-long downward trend still intact.
如果说市场理应反映出担忧和贪婪二者间的平衡，那为何没有几个市场反映出当前对美国政界即将触发的债务违约的广泛担忧？在将受到直接影响的美国国债市场，10年期国债收益率仍然低于3%，长达几十年的下降趋势仍未受到影响。
If there is a partial exception, it is in currencies. The dollar’s downward trajectory is well-established, and on a trade-weighted basis it is now only 3.5 per cent above the all-time low it set in the crisis summer of 2008. But its fall since last Friday’s breakdown in congressional talks has varied this pattern in one significant respect.
如果说存在部分例外，那就是外汇市场。美元的下行走势已经十分明显，而且目前美元的贸易加权汇率比2008年夏季金融危机时的史上最低点仅仅高出3.5%。然而自上周五国会谈判破裂以来美元的下跌，却与此前的模式存在一种重要的区别。