高油价将风险带回亚洲

如果石油价格长期停留在每桶70美元，它会让亚洲高速增长的经济一头栽倒在地，并结束很多亚洲国家过去5年高增长低通胀的好时光吗？要回答这个问题，有必要先提出另一个问题：2002年初以来的油价急剧上涨，迄今为何对该地区影响如此之小？

Will a prolonged spell of $70-a-barrel oil bring Asia’s high-flying economies crashing to earth and end the heady growth and low inflation in which many have basked for the past five years? To answer that question it is necessary first to pose another: why has the steep rise in oil prices since early 2002 had so little impact on the region so far?

乍一看，亚洲的适应能力令人困惑。头两次石油危机带来的效率和节能措施，帮助西方经济体经受这一次油价高涨的冲击，但日本、香港和新加坡以外的亚洲大部分地区，仍在大量消耗石油。印度尼西亚每单位经济产出的石油消耗，几乎5倍于工业国家的平均水平，即使是发达得多的韩国，其消耗的石油也是工业国家平均水平的2倍。

At first glance, Asia’s resilience is puzzling. Efficiency and conservation measures prompted by the first two oil shocks have helped western economies weather this one. But most of Asia – apart from Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore – still guzzles oil. Indonesia consumes almost four times more per unit of economic output than the average industrialised country. Even much more advanced South Korea requires twice as much.

直到现在，很多亚洲经济体一直受到人为保护，未承受高油价的全面冲击。补贴、价格控制和低燃油税，阻止了高油价转嫁到消费者身上。在没有采取此类措施的国家，高油价的通胀影响被中国主导的制成品竞争抵消，使各国央行得以保持低利率和宽松的货币政策。

Until now, many Asian economies have been shielded from the full impact of high oil prices. Subsidies, price controls and low fuel taxes have kept them from feeding through to consumers. In countries that have not resorted to such measures, the inflationary effects of dearer oil have been offset by Chinese-led competition in manufactured goods, allowing central banks to keep interest rates low and monetary policies loose.

与此同时，充裕的全球流动资金，以及投资者对回报的狂热追求，使得有经常账户赤字的国家能够通过投资组合资本的流入，为更昂贵的石油进口融资。而在经常账户有盈余的国家，高储蓄率减轻了能源和大宗商品价格上升造成的贸易条件恶化带来的冲击。

Meanwhile, abundant global liquidity and investors’ frenzied quest for returns have enabled countries with current account deficits to finance dearer oil imports through inflows of portfolio capital. In surplus countries, high savings ratios have softened the impact of the deterioration in the terms of trade caused by higher energy and commodities prices.

薄弱的市场纪律和价格信号抬高了石油消费，让人没有动力提高使用效率。这种螺旋上升是无法持续的，在某个时候，盛宴必将结束。不清楚的是，结束的时间是在油价达到每桶70美元，80美元，还是100美元时，但在亚洲较为脆弱的经济体中，裂缝正开始出现。

Weak market disciplines and price signals have driven up oil consumption and stunted incentives to increase efficiency. The upward spiral is unsustainable. At some point, the party has to end. Whether that point is reached at $70, $80 or $100 per barrel is unclear. But cracks are starting to appear in Asia’s more vulnerable economies.

极度依赖石油进口的泰国已付出代价。由于财政负担日益加大，贸易赤字不断攀升，泰国被迫取消了去年出台的不明智的燃油补贴，这进一步抑制了需求，而泰国经济本已受到干旱、海啸和旅游业收入降低的沉重打击。

Thailand, which depends exceptionally heavily on oil imports, has already paid the price. A growing fiscal burden and mounting trade deficit have forced it to scrap the fuel subsidies it unwisely introduced last year, further depressing demand in an economy battered by drought, tsunamis and lower tourism revenue.

在印尼，补贴吞噬了高达三分之一的预算，政府在取消补贴的问题上犹豫不决，使得印尼丧失了急需的基础设施投资的资源。在印度，油价控制正使本已庞大的预算和经常账户赤字进一步膨胀。补贴大户中国已被迫限制成品油出口，以应对突然爆发的汽油短缺。

In Indonesia, where subsidies devour as much as a third of the budget, government dithering over scrapping them is depriving the country of resources for desperately needed infrastructure investment. In India, oil price controls are bloating already large budget and current account deficits. And China, also a heavy subsidiser, has been forced to limit exports of refined oil in an effort to combat sudden petrol shortages.

简而言之，高油价正在暴露曾被繁荣所掩盖的糟糕的政策和结构性缺陷，正如该地区1997年经济危机所暴露的那些缺陷。各国的经济增长率几乎都将受到影响(石油出口国马来西亚可能例外)，但那些经济管理糟糕的国家将面临最艰难的调整。

In short, high oil prices are exposing bad policies and structural weaknesses that were masked during the boom years – just as the region’s economic crisis did in 1997. Although growth rates almost everywhere will be dented – except possibly in oil-exporting Malaysia – countries with poor economic management face the toughest adjustment.

后果可能不会像1997年的危机那么严重，即使每桶70美元的石油，预计也不会让亚洲经济陷入衰退。多数亚洲国家的财务状况都比8年前健康得多，高估的固定汇率已被抛弃，银行系统进行了改革，短期外债大幅减少，而且多数国家都实行了更严格的预算纪律。

The consequences are unlikely to be as severe as those of the 1997 crisis. Even $70 oil is not expected to plunge Asian economies into recession. Most are in much sounder financial shape than eight years ago. Overvalued fixed exchange rates have been abandoned, banking systems overhauled, short-term foreign debt cut drastically and, in most cases, tighter budget disciplines imposed.

但随着危机后的复苏步伐加快，自满现象出现了。该地区不但浪费了能源，还停止了提高经济效率、减少过度依赖出口导向型增长的努力。虽然部分国家政府试图刺激国内需求，但大部分国家都在深层次结构改革面前停滞不前，而它们需要这些改革来清除市场扭曲，让市场更具活力和弹性。

However, as the post-crisis recovery gathered pace, it induced complacency. Not only has the region squandered energy, efforts to increase economic efficiency and reduce heavy dependence on export-led growth have stalled. Although some governments have sought to stimulate domestic demand, most have balked at the deep structural reforms needed to remove distortions and make markets more dynamic and flexible.

或许高油价的冲击将激发改革。但亚洲各国政府的回旋余地，将由两个它们无法控制的因素决定：一是美国的货币政策走向，卡特里娜(Katrina)飓风造成的破坏和油价飙升，使得美国货币政策的前景很不明朗。

Perhaps the jolt of high oil prices will kick-start reforms. However, governments’ room for manoeuvre will be determined by two factors beyond their control. One is the future course of US monetary policy, which has been made much less clear by the devastation and spike in oil prices created by Hurricane Katrina.

二是美国的经济状况。卡特里娜飓风导致很多经济学家调低了对近期经济增长的预测。还有一个更大的担忧是，美国的房产泡沫会破灭，引起美国消费者大幅削减支出。鉴于亚洲其它国家严重依赖对中国的出口，而中国的大部分增长依赖对美出口，因此冲击波将传遍整个地区。正如摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席经济学家史蒂芬•罗奇(Stephen Roach)近期所指出的，全球化是把双刃剑：它在经济景气时广泛传播好处，但也会把冲击迅速传遍全球。

The second is the state of the US economy. Katrina has caused many economists to trim their near-term growth forecasts. A still bigger concern is that the US housing bubble will burst, causing American consumers to cut spending sharply. Given the rest of Asia’s heavy dependence on exports to China, which in turn relies for much of its growth on exports to the US, the shockwaves would spread throughout the region. As Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, recalled recently, globalisation works both ways: it spreads benefits widely in good times but it also transmits shocks rapidly around the world.

我们只能猜测这样一个恶性循环的发生概率。但目前亚洲经济前景的不确定性，比1997年危机以来的任何时候都更多、更大。就在各国政府和市场5年来似乎逐渐遗忘风险之际，风险却在悄悄逼近。

The probability of such a vicious circle developing can only be guessed at. But Asia’s economic prospects are today clouded by more and greater uncertainties than at any time since its 1997 crisis. After five years in which governments and markets seemed increasingly oblivious to risk, it is stalking the region again.

译者/李功文