Russian aggression may cause global starvation

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{"text":[[{"start":12.58,"text":"The war in Ukraine is a catastrophic crime of aggression. "},{"start":16.197,"text":"Support for Kyiv’s fight for national survival has, rightly, been the focus for democratic states. "},{"start":21.939,"text":"But the effects of the Kremlin’s invasion are spreading. "},{"start":24.881999999999998,"text":"Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are critical to the world supply of food. "},{"start":29.024,"text":"Shortages, already a problem, are likely to worsen. "}],[{"start":33.49,"text":"According to the UN, food prices in March were already up by 34 per cent on the same month last year. "},{"start":39.994,"text":"Cereals were up by 37 per cent and vegetable oils by 56 per cent. "},{"start":44.862,"text":"The UN notes that what it calls the “Black Sea region” contributes significantly to both. "}],[{"start":50.47,"text":"Countries that have sought to raise their own production have also run into high energy and fertiliser costs. "},{"start":56.074,"text":"Both have been inflated by the war: Russia is a big energy exporter while its ally Belarus is a power in potash, a key part of the fertiliser supply. "}],[{"start":65.6,"text":"This is already causing a painful squeeze for households across the world, and has the capacity to cause a disaster in the poorest nations. "},{"start":73.054,"text":"The price shock’s first political effects are with us, too. "},{"start":76.597,"text":"Pakistan has already seen its politics upended, in part because of worries about food prices. "}],[{"start":82.46,"text":"Democratic governments must plan on the basis that food, energy and fertiliser supply problems will persist. "},{"start":88.627,"text":"Ukraine’s fight may take a long time. "},{"start":91.107,"text":"The ability to hold the line with sanctions against Russia and Belarus is mission critical — and a food price crisis will erode popular support for it. "}],[{"start":99.91,"text":"Even if the war is resolved swiftly in Kyiv’s favour, Ukraine’s capacity will not return to prewar output for some time. "},{"start":106.877,"text":"Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that Russia, abetted by Belarus, has engaged in crimes against humanity. "},{"start":113.357,"text":"The world may want to curtail their ability to regroup economically. "}],[{"start":117.49,"text":"Right now, a key objective should be preventing new export restrictions between other nations. "},{"start":122.94399999999999,"text":"There is enough food out there. "},{"start":124.83699999999999,"text":"It is just in the wrong places. "},{"start":126.917,"text":"This is a problem that global markets should excel at fixing — so long as food can cross borders. "}],[{"start":133.26,"text":"Prices rising should also stimulate some more supply to come on stream, and policy should not seek to prevent that. "},{"start":139.577,"text":"States, of course, should protect the vulnerable — but do it by boosting their spending power, rather than trying to cut prices upstream. "}],[{"start":147.67,"text":"Politicians should aim to speed new supply to markets. "},{"start":151.16199999999998,"text":"In some limited cases, this could mean retooling agricultural subsidies to help farmers switch to sorely needed produce. "},{"start":157.67899999999997,"text":"In the medium term, policy also needs to steer farms to low-carbon methods so they are less vulnerable to fuel crises. "}],[{"start":165.26999999999998,"text":"This all adds up to an expensive prospectus. "},{"start":168.349,"text":"Richer countries need to stand ready to help poorer ones, who may find themselves needing budget support, credit, debt guarantees and direct aid — or facing starvation. "}],[{"start":178.38,"text":"Finally, the food price problem also raises the stakes for the information war, where Russia has had some success in advancing its case outside Europe and North America. "}],[{"start":187.92,"text":"To counter the risk of waning popular support for Ukraine’s resistance, democratic nations need to do better at blaming Moscow for the price shock, as well as its on-the-ground atrocities. "},{"start":197.69899999999998,"text":"Support for struggling states should be paired with renewed efforts against Russian disinformation. "}],[{"start":203.1,"text":"The stakes in the food crisis could scarcely be higher: this is a matter of life and death that extends far beyond the daily victims of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. "},{"start":211.754,"text":"But this is also about the reputation of liberal democratic values around the world. "},{"start":216.284,"text":"Rich countries were seen to let down the poor during the pandemic over vaccine supply. "},{"start":221.064,"text":"They must not fail on the food crisis. "}],[{"start":223.44,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/001095876-1650435831.mp3"}

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Russian aggression may cause global starvation

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