The writer is a former chief investment strategist at Bridgewater Associates
本文作者是桥水(Bridgewater Associates)前首席投资策略师
With a consequential US election only days away, investors and analysts have been increasingly asked how they are trading the event. Shifts in government policy after elections can obviously influence market and economic trends.
事关重大的美国大选即将正式开始，越来越多的投资者和分析师被问及如何针对这一事件开展交易。选举后政府政策的转变显然将影响市场和经济趋势。
But correctly predicting changes in government policy and market reactions is far from straightforward, even if traders correctly call the highly uncertain outcome of this election. As always, timing is key even when there is a clear policy shift to trade on. When are policy proposals announced? How much is discounted in market valuations when proposals become reality?
但是，正确预测政府政策的变化和市场反应远非易事，即使交易员能正确预测这次大选的高度不确定的结果。一如既往，找准时机是关键，即使有明确的政策转变可以作为交易的依据。政策建议何时公布？当提案成为现实时，其市场估值会打多少折扣？
The 2016 campaign and victory of former president Donald Trump provide useful examples of these challenges. His rhetoric around trade led many investors to position portfolios in ways they thought would benefit if he became president and quickly imposed tariffs. This was perhaps best reflected in currencies of countries that had large bilateral trade imbalances with the US. Many sold off sharply versus the dollar into and immediately after the election.
2016年的竞选和唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的胜利为这些挑战提供了有用的例子。他围绕贸易发表的言论导致许多投资者调整投资组合，所根据的是如果朗普成为总统并迅速征收关税，他们认为怎样的配置会获益。这或许最能反映在那些与美国存在巨大双边贸易失衡的国家的货币上。其中许多货币在大选期间和大选之后都遭到大幅抛售。