The writer is a former chair of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and a senior adviser to the Systemic Risk Council
Good news for the US economy just keeps pouring in. Wages are up. The stock market is up. Job creation is strong. Credit is readily available. Some have called it a “Goldilocks economy,” but it feels more like Papa Bear’s soup, running a bit hot.
Yet the Federal Reserve Board seems determined to keep turning up the heat with more rate cuts. Chair Jay Powell has signalled that these will be gradual. But with economic growth this strong, why cut at all?
If there is a warning sign for our economy, it can be found in persistently high and rising core inflation. The most recent Consumer Price Index report had core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, at 3.3 per cent. While “headline inflation” is lower, holding steady at 2.4 per cent, this is partly due to past declines in energy costs which are now rising as war spreads in the Middle East. The most recent University of Michigan survey shows consumer inflation expectations rising sharply.