The writer is the director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin
本文作者是柏林卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心(Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center)主任
“These amendments are written for a big war and general mobilisation. And the smell of this big war can already be scented,” Andrei Kartapolov, the head of the Duma’s defence committee, said this week as the Russian parliament rushed to adopt a new law. The legislation enabling the Kremlin to send hundreds of thousands more men into combat reveals a sad truth: that far from seeking an off-ramp from his disastrous war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is preparing for an even bigger war.
“这些修订是为一场大战和总动员而起草的。我们已经可以闻到这场大战的味道。”俄罗斯杜马国防委员会主席安德烈•卡尔塔波洛夫(Andrei Kartapolov)上周在俄罗斯议会匆忙通过一项新法律之际表示。这项为克里姆林宫向战场增派数十万兵力创造条件的法律揭示了一个令人悲伤的事实：弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)非但不寻求退出灾难性的对乌战争，反而在为扩大战争规模做准备。
It is understandable that many in Ukraine and the west want to believe that Russia’s president is cornered. The Ukrainian army is gradually reconquering lands occupied by the Russians and has shown itself capable of striking deep into enemy territory — even into the Kremlin itself. The sanctions pressure on Russia is mounting.
可以理解的是，乌克兰和西方的许多人想要相信俄罗斯总统已经走投无路了。乌克兰军队正在逐渐收复被俄罗斯占领的土地，并显示出自己有能力深入敌方领土、甚至是克里姆林宫进行打击。制裁对俄罗斯造成的压力越来越大。
For now, the west remains united in support of Kyiv, and streams of modern weaponry and money sustain the Ukrainian war effort. Finally, the mutiny staged by the Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and visible conflicts among senior Russian military commanders add to hopes that the Kremlin’s war machine will break down.
目前，西方仍团结一致支持乌克兰，源源不断的现代武器和资金维持着乌克兰在战场上的努力。最后，雇佣军集团瓦格纳(Wagner)的老大叶夫根尼•普里戈任(Yevgeny Prigozhin)策划的兵变，以及俄罗斯高级军事指挥官之间显而易见的冲突，都增加了人们对这一可能性寄予的希望：克里姆林宫战争机器将崩溃。