Back in October 2015, as then prime minister David Cameron welcomed President Xi Jinping to the UK, China’s central bank issued one-year bills in London’s offshore renminbi debt market. The move was viewed as cementing London’s status as the centre of renminbi business outside greater China. Two years earlier George Osborne, then Britain’s chancellor of the exchequer, had said that the Chinese currency would “become almost as familiar as the dollar” within his lifetime.
回想2015年10月的时候，在时任英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)欢迎中国国家主席习近平访英之际，中国央行在伦敦的离岸人民币债券市场发行了一年期债券。此举被视为巩固了伦敦作为大中华区以外人民币业务中心的地位。再往前两年，时任英国财政大臣乔治•奥斯本(George Osborne)说过，在他有生之年人民币将“变成几乎和美元一样无人不知的货币”。
The International Monetary Fund would later add the renminbi to its reserve-currency club, the Special Drawing Right basket, describing it as a “milestone in the integration of the Chinese economy into the global financial system”.
后来，国际货币基金组织(IMF)宣布将人民币纳入其特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子，并将此描述为“中国经济融入全球金融体系的里程碑”。
But even before the IMF’s decision took effect in October, there were signs that SDR recognition might turn out to be the high water mark of the renminbi’s internationalisation rather than the dawn of a new, more diversified global monetary system.
然而，在IMF的决定于2016年10月生效之前就有迹象显示，获准加入SDR最终可能只是表明人民币国际化达到了很高水准，而非表明世界即将迎来一种新的更为多元化的货币体系。
Across a range of indicators, the extent of its global push has slowed and in many cases slipped into reverse.
从一系列指标来看，人民币国际化步伐放缓，而且在许多情况下还开了倒车。
The share of China’s foreign trade settled in its own currency has shrunk from 26 per cent to 16 per cent over the past year while renminbi deposits in Hong Kong — the currency’s largest offshore centre — are down 30 per cent from a 2014 peak of Rmb1tn. Foreign ownership of Chinese domestic financial assets peaked at Rmb4.6tn in May 2015; it now stands at just Rmb3.3tn. In terms of turnover on global foreign exchange markets, the renminbi is only the world’s eighth most-traded currency — squeezed between the Swiss franc and Swedish krona — barely changed from ninth position in 2013.
在过去一年里，中国对外贸易中以人民币结算的份额从26%降至16%，同时香港的人民币存款较2014年的1万亿元人民币峰值下降30%——香港是全球最大的人民币离岸中心。外资持有的中国境内金融资产在2015年5月达到4.6万亿元人民币的峰值，现在则只有3.3万亿元人民币。就全球外汇市场的交易额而言，人民币只是全球第八大交易货币——排名介于瑞士法郎和瑞典克朗之间——与2013年排名第九相比变动不大。
What appeared to be structural drivers supporting greater international use of the Chinese currency now appear more like opportunism and speculation. Between the renminbi’s de-pegging from the US dollar in July 2005 and its all-time high of 6.04 versus the dollar in January 2014, the renminbi gained 37 per cent as it followed a nearly uninterrupted path of appreciation.
如今看来，使人民币在国际上得到更广泛使用的结构性因素更可能是机会主义和投机。从2005年7月中国取消人民币盯住美元制度，到2014年1月人民币汇率达到1美元兑6.04元人民币的历史高点，人民币几乎一路升值，升幅达37%。
An expectation that this would continue drew hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign capital into China, often exploiting loopholes in regulations designed to discourage speculative inflows, as investors hoped to profit from risk-free currency gains.
人民币不断升值的预期吸引数千亿美元外国资本进入中国，虽然后者出台了旨在打击投机性资本流入的监管措施，但这些资本绕过规则进入中国，希望从无风险的货币升值中获利。
But the tide has turned. The renminbi hit an eight-year low versus the dollar late last month and is on track for its worst one-year fall on record. Investors are offloading renminbi assets and exploiting those same loopholes to move funds in the opposite direction.
但如今这股潮流已经转向。人民币兑美元汇率在上月末触及8年来的低点，今年还可能创下有史以来的最大年度跌幅。投资者纷纷抛售人民币资产，并利用同样的监管漏洞将资金转移出境。
1. July 2005 – 8.2765 – China ends strict Rmb peg to US$
2. July 2008 – 6.8211 – China re-institutes US$ peg in response to financial crisis
1.2005年7月，1美元兑8.2765元人民币。中国放弃人民币严格盯住美元的汇率制度；