China’s bond market is not a truth-teller to match bigger, more liquid markets like the US and Italy. But nonetheless the signal it has sent is clear. Its yield curve flattened almost to the point of inversion a month ago, and in recent weeks it has steepened again.
与美国、意大利等规模更大、流动性更强的债市相比，中国债市对本国经济状况的反映能力较低。尽管如此，中国债市发出的信号仍算得上明确。一个月以前，中国债券收益率曲线几乎平坦至接近反转，最近几周则再次变陡。
For those not initiated in bond market vocabulary, this means the gap between the yields on 10- and two-year bonds thinned almost to nothing – 0.05 percentage points at the lowest point, according to Bloomberg data – and has now rebounded. Ten-year yields are about 0.8 percentage points higher than two-year yields.
我为那些不熟悉债市术语的人解释一下：这意味着，10年期和2年期债券的收益率差距几乎收窄至零——彭博(Bloomberg)数据显示，两者差距曾收窄至0.05个百分点的历史低点——现在又有所扩大。目前，10年期债券收益率比2年期债券高出0.8个百分点。
Why does this matter? Normally, investors demand a higher yield for longer-term bonds, to compensate for the extra risks of committing for the longer term, primarily inflation. When the yield curve flattens or inverts, it is a signal that investors expect lower interest rates and lower inflation in future. In other words, they expect a recession.
这一点为何重要？在正常情况下，投资者要求期限较长的债券提供更高的收益率，以补偿长期投资的额外风险（主要是通胀）。收益率曲线平缓或反转，意味着投资者预期未来利率和通胀率会降低。换句话说，他们预计经济会出现衰退。