中国经济

Dynamic recovery may not be sustainable
中国强劲复苏难以为继?


目前,没多少人会怀疑中国政府将实现全年GDP增长8%的目标。然而,一些分析师认为,中国将很难恢复到过去20年间9%-10%的增长水平。

Not for the first time in recent memory, China's economy is the envy of the world. While most big economies are either still mired in recession or showing modest recoveries, China is firing ahead.

在人们近来的记忆中,中国并非头一回让全世界艳羡。当多数大型经济体要么仍身陷衰退之中,要么才略有复苏之际,中国已在火速前进。

Few now doubt that the government will achieve its target for the year of 8 per cent growth in gross domestic product – even if many think there are still big questions about the accuracy of Chinese GDP numbers.

目前,没多少人会怀疑,今年中国政府将实现全年国内生产总值(GDP)增长8%的目标——尽管很多人都认为,中国GDP数据的准确性仍存在很大问题。

The startling rebound is the result of a successful stimulus plan. China made headlines last year with a plan to spend Rmb4,000bn ($600bn) over two years on investment.

中国经济惊人的回升,是成功实施一项刺激计划所致。去年中国出台了两年内投资4万亿元人民币的方案,成为头条新闻。

However, the bulk of the stimulus has come from the government's order to state-owned banks to push through a massive surge in loans. Bank lending in renminbi has increased by 164 per cent in the first eight months of the year.

然而,此项刺激方案很大程度上有赖于政府勒令国有银行大力投放信贷。今年前8个月,银行投放的人民币贷款增长了164%。

The latest round of figures, for August, suggest the recovery is gathering pace, with industrial output increasing 12.3 per cent over the same month last year and fixed asset investment expanding by 33 per cent.

最新发布的8月份数据显示,经济复苏步伐正在加快。其中,工业产出较去年同期增长12.3%,固定资产投资扩大33%。

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