An explosion of money is the main reason, but not the only one, to be concerned about last week's surprise decision by the Federal Reserve to increase sharply its holdings of mortgage backed securities and to start purchasing longer term Treasury securities.
关于美联储(Fed)上周意外决定大幅增持抵押贷款支持证券和购买长期国债，货币爆炸是令人不安的主要原因，但非唯一一个。
First consider the monetary effects. When the Fed purchases public or private securities or makes loans to banks or to other private firms, it must finance them. The Fed can borrow the funds, or it can ask the Treasury to borrow the funds, or it can do it the old-fashioned way: create money. The Fed creates money in part by printing it but mostly by crediting banks with deposits at the Fed. Those deposits are called reserve balances and are the key component – along with currency – of base money or central bank money which ultimately brings about changes in broader money supply measures.
首先考虑货币效应。无论是购买公债或私人证券，还是贷款给银行或其它私营公司，美联储必须为其提供资金。它可以借入资金，或让财政部借钱，或者采取古老的办法：创造货币。美联储创造货币，部分是通过印刷钞票，但最主要的途径是贷记各银行在美联储的存款。这些存款叫做准备金余额，与通货一起作为基础货币或中央银行货币的重要组成部分，最终将带来更广泛货币供应衡量指标的变化。
These deposits or reserves have been exploding as the Fed has made loans and purchased securities. Six months ago reserves were $8bn, in a range appropriate for its interest rate target at the time. As of last week, reserves were nearly 100 times larger at $778bn, the result of creating money to finance loans to banks, investment banks, AIG, central banks and purchases of private securities. Before last week's federal open market committee meeting, I projected these would increase to $2,215bn by the end of this year if the new Consumer and Business Loan Initiative of the Treasury were to be financed by money creation. With last week's dramatic announcement, the Fed will have to increase reserves by another $1,150bn to $3,365bn by the end of the year if the securities purchases are financed by money creation. Quantitative easing or credit easing means that the growth rate of the quantity of money increases, but there is no monetary principle or empirical evidence supporting such an explosion.
随着美联储发放贷款和购买证券，这些存款（即准备金）一直呈爆炸式增长。六个月前，准备金余额为80亿美元，位于适合当时利率目标的区间内。而上周，由于美联储通过创造货币来提供资金，以便向银行、投行、美国国际集团(AIG)和其它国家央行贷款以及购买私人证券，准备金余额已达到7780亿美元，几乎增加了100倍。在上周的美联储公开市场委员会会议前，我曾预计，若财政部新的消费和商业贷款计划(Consumer and Business Loan Initiative)需通过货币创造来融资，准备金余额在今年底将增至22150亿美元。上周引人瞩目的公告中购买证券的计划，若也需通过货币创造提供资金，美联储将不得不在今年年底前再增加11500亿美元准备金，至33650亿美元。定量宽松或放宽信贷意味着货币总量将加速增长，但没有货币原则或经验证据可以支持这种爆炸。