FT电影：英国脱欧，经济脱轨

{"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/91b8a350-5817-4b40-a5ea-c62ec832aa9c.mp3","caption":"https://next-media-api.ft.com/captions/16660906126650.vtt","video":"https://next-media-api.ft.com/renditions/16660906126650/1280x720.mp4","text":[[{"start":1.575,"end":4.38,"text":"The \"mini\" Budget was really the culmination ","translations":["“迷你”预算实际上是英国脱欧公投以来实施的经济政策的高潮。","“小型”预算案实际上是自英国脱欧投票以来所实施的经济政策的顶点。"]},{"start":4.38,"end":6.78,"text":"of the economic policies that have been put "},{"start":6.78,"end":9.27,"text":"in place since the Brexit vote. "}],[{"start":9.27,"end":11.76,"text":"A very particular idea of sovereignty ","translations":["这是一个关于主权凌驾于经济理性之上的特别观点。","一种非常特殊的主权高于经济常识的想法。"]},{"start":11.76,"end":14.33,"text":"over economic good sense. "}],[{"start":14.33,"end":16.947,"text":"We couldn't ship anything to the EU, nothing. ","translations":["我们不能把任何东西运到欧盟，什么都不能。","我们不能向欧盟运送任何东西，什么都不能。"]}],[{"start":16.947,"end":19.542,"text":"It's bordering on disastrous. ","translations":["这几乎是灾难性的。","这几乎是灾难性的。"]}],[{"start":19.542,"end":24.08,"text":"The Brexiteers haven't really formulated a cogent case ","translations":["脱欧派还没有真正提出一个令人信服的理由，说明为什么脱欧将带来红利。","脱欧派并没有真正制定一个有说服力的案例，说明为什么脱欧会带来红利。"]},{"start":24.08,"end":27.252,"text":"as to why Brexit is going to deliver a dividend. "}],[{"start":27.252,"end":29.06,"text":"There is a political conspiracy of silence ","translations":["围绕英国退欧的影响，存在着一种保持沉默的政治阴谋。","在英国脱欧的影响方面，存在着一种政治上的沉默阴谋。"]},{"start":29.06,"end":30.74,"text":"around the effects of Brexit. "}],[{"start":30.74,"end":33.841,"text":"It spans the government, it spans the Labour Party. ","translations":["它跨越政府，跨越工党。","它跨越了政府，跨越了工党。"]}],[{"start":33.841,"end":36.192,"text":"Make Brexit work. ","translations":["使Brexit工作。","让英国脱欧发挥作用。"]}],[{"start":36.192,"end":38.54,"text":"The UK's decision to leave the European Union ","translations":["英国决定退出欧盟是一种经济上的自残行为。","英国离开欧盟的决定是一种经济上的自我伤害行为。"]},{"start":38.54,"end":40.7,"text":"is an act of economic self-harm. "}],[{"start":40.7,"end":44.27,"text":"In terms of prices, investment, and in terms of trade, ","translations":["在价格、投资和贸易方面，我们看到了负面影响，不是流行病的影响，也不是能源危机的影响。","在价格、投资和贸易方面，我们看到了负面的影响，不是大流行病的影响，不是能源危机的影响。"]},{"start":44.27,"end":47.3,"text":"we're seeing negative effects, not a pandemic effect, not "},{"start":47.3,"end":48.63,"text":"an energy crisis effect. "}],[{"start":48.63,"end":50.39,"text":"These are very clearly Brexit effects. ","translations":["这些都是非常明显的脱欧影响。","这些都是非常明显的英国脱欧效应。"]}],[{"start":54.612,"end":58.43,"text":"When the UK voted to leave the European Union in 2016, ","translations":["2016年，当英国投票决定离开欧盟时，这似乎是一个简单的决定。","当英国在2016年投票离开欧盟时，这似乎是一个在离开和留下之间的简单决定。"]},{"start":58.43,"end":62.375,"text":"it seemed like a simple decision between leaving and staying. "}],[{"start":62.375,"end":65.15,"text":"What we've ended up with, through many years ","translations":["经过多年的反复，我们最终得到的是几乎是你能得到的最艰难、最不一致的脱欧版本。","通过多年来的反反复复，我们最终得到的是几乎是最难的、最不一致的英国脱欧版本，你可以得到。"]},{"start":65.15,"end":68.03,"text":"of back and forth, has been pretty much "},{"start":68.03,"end":71.87,"text":"the hardest, least aligned version of Brexit "},{"start":71.87,"end":73.64,"text":"that you could get. "}],[{"start":73.64,"end":75.98,"text":"We're not part of the European single market. ","translations":["我们不是欧洲单一市场的一部分。","我们不是欧洲单一市场的一部分。"]}],[{"start":75.98,"end":77.72,"text":"We're not part of the customs union. ","translations":["我们不是关税同盟的成员。","我们不是关税同盟的一部分。"]}],[{"start":77.72,"end":81.785,"text":"We just have a very bare bones free trade agreement. ","translations":["我们只是有一个非常基本的自由贸易协定。","我们只是有一个非常原始的自由贸易协定。"]}],[{"start":81.785,"end":84.325,"text":"And the costs of that have become clear over time. ","translations":["随着时间的推移，这种做法的代价已经变得越来越明显。","随着时间的推移，这种做法的代价已经变得很明显。"]}],[{"start":84.325,"end":85.7,"text":"Of course, those have been masked ","translations":["当然，这些都被Covid-19大流行掩盖了，它关闭了世界各地的经济。","当然，这些都被Covid-19大流行病所掩盖，它使全世界的经济都关闭了。"]},{"start":85.7,"end":88.88,"text":"by the Covid-19 pandemic, which shut down economies "},{"start":88.88,"end":89.78,"text":"all over the world. "}],[{"start":89.78,"end":91.82,"text":"And then the crisis in Ukraine, which ","translations":["此外，乌克兰危机扰乱了全球能源市场，助长了通胀。","然后是乌克兰危机，它扰乱了全球能源市场，帮助推动了通货膨胀。"]},{"start":91.82,"end":93.74000000000001,"text":"has scrambled global energy markets, "},{"start":93.74000000000001,"end":95.225,"text":"helped to drive inflation. "}],[{"start":95.225,"end":97.1,"text":"But we're just now starting to see ","translations":["但我们现在才开始看到英国脱欧的影响，这不是特别好。","但我们现在才开始看到英国脱欧的影响，而且不是特别漂亮。"]},{"start":97.1,"end":99.44,"text":"the Brexit effect coming through and it's not "},{"start":99.44,"end":100.43299999999999,"text":"particularly pretty. "}],[{"start":100.43299999999999,"end":105.63,"text":"Let June the 23rd go down in our history as our Independence ","translations":["让6月23日作为我们的独立日载入史册。","让6月23日作为我们的独立日载入我们的历史。"]},{"start":105.63,"end":106.13,"text":"Day. "}],[{"start":109.22,"end":110.66,"text":"We've got our country back. ","translations":["我们夺回了我们的国家。","我们已经找回了我们的国家。"]}],[{"start":111.94,"end":115.85,"text":"We see it, first of all, in terms of the original vote ","translations":["首先，我们从最初的脱欧公投中看到了这一点。","我们看到，首先，从最初投票离开欧盟的情况来看。"]},{"start":115.85,"end":117.11,"text":"to leave the EU. "}],[{"start":117.11,"end":119.84,"text":"That sent the pound down about 10 per cent ","translations":["这导致英镑兑我们贸易伙伴的汇率下跌了约10%，使进口商品更加昂贵。","这使英镑对我们的贸易伙伴下跌了约10%，这使得进口商品更加昂贵。"]},{"start":119.84,"end":122.45,"text":"against our trading partners, and that "},{"start":122.45,"end":124.1,"text":"makes imports more expensive. "}],[{"start":124.1,"end":126.41,"text":"It also makes your exports more competitive. ","translations":["这也使你们的出口产品更具竞争力。","它也使你的出口更有竞争力。"]}],[{"start":126.41,"end":128.88,"text":"But in this case, our exports didn't budge. ","translations":["但在这种情况下，我们的出口没有变化。","但在这种情况下，我们的出口并没有动摇。"]}],[{"start":128.88,"end":132.47,"text":"They didn't go up at all, but our import prices went up, ","translations":["它们根本没有上涨，但我们的进口价格上涨了，这使通货膨胀率上升了大约2%到3%。","它们根本没有上升，但我们的进口价格上升了，这使通货膨胀率上升了约2%至3%。"]},{"start":132.47,"end":135.54,"text":"and that raised inflation by about 2 per cent to 3 per cent. "}],[{"start":135.54,"end":137.555,"text":"So that simply made people poorer. ","translations":["这只会让人们变得更穷。","所以这只是让人们变得更穷。"]}],[{"start":137.555,"end":140.09,"text":"When it's been calculated that the immediate cost of that ","translations":["经过计算，每个家庭的直接成本大约是870英镑。","当它被计算出来时，每个家庭的直接成本约为870英镑。"]},{"start":140.09,"end":144.785,"text":"was about 870 pounds per household. "}],[{"start":144.785,"end":145.57999999999998,"text":"I'm Dani Loughran. ","translations":["我是丹尼Loughran。","我是Dani Loughran。"]}],[{"start":145.57999999999998,"end":148.4,"text":"I'm the Managing Director of Aston Chemicals, a speciality ","translations":["我是阿斯顿化工公司的董事总经理，阿斯顿化工是个人护理行业的专业化学品经销商。","我是阿斯顿化学公司的总经理，这是一家个人护理行业的特殊化学品分销商。"]},{"start":148.4,"end":150.787,"text":"chemical distributor for the personal care industry. "}],[{"start":150.787,"end":152.12,"text":"Well, our freight costs went up. ","translations":["我们的运费上涨了。","好吧，我们的货运成本上升了。"]}],[{"start":152.12,"end":154.287,"text":"Everything that's costed in dollars around the world ","translations":["如果你用英镑支付，世界上所有以美元计价的东西都会变得更贵，这是英国脱欧造成的。","如果你用英镑支付，世界上所有以美元计算的东西都变得更贵了，这是由英国脱欧造成的。"]},{"start":154.287,"end":157.04,"text":"became more expensive if you're paying in sterling, "},{"start":157.04,"end":159.65,"text":"and that was caused by Brexit. "}],[{"start":159.65,"end":162.2,"text":"For many years, the Brexit side of the debate ","translations":["多年来，支持英国退欧的一方认为自己赢得了这场辩论，因为市场上没有太多绝对的恐慌。","多年来，英国脱欧辩论的一方认为他们赢得了争论，因为市场上没有什么绝对恐慌。"]},{"start":162.2,"end":164.75,"text":"felt they won the argument because there hadn't been "},{"start":164.75,"end":167.21,"text":"much absolute panic in markets. "}],[{"start":167.21,"end":170.39,"text":"In the recent \"mini\" Budget, Kwasi Kwarteng ","translations":["在最近的“迷你”预算中，夸西夸腾确实吓坏了市场。","在最近的“小型”预算案中，Kwasi Kwarteng真的吓坏了市场。"]},{"start":170.39,"end":172.28,"text":"really spooked the markets. "}],[{"start":172.28,"end":174.92000000000002,"text":"Sterling absolutely plummeted, then ","translations":["英镑暴跌，随后又有所回升。","英镑绝对暴跌，随后又恢复了一些。"]},{"start":174.92000000000002,"end":176.42000000000002,"text":"subsequently recovered a bit. "}],[{"start":176.42000000000002,"end":178.22,"text":"But more serious was what's happened ","translations":["但更严重的是政府借贷成本的变化，因为金融市场认为，预算案实际上是不计后果的。","但更严重的是政府借贷成本发生了什么，因为金融市场已经认为预算案实际上是鲁莽的。"]},{"start":178.22,"end":181.55,"text":"to government borrowing costs, because the financial markets "},{"start":181.55,"end":184.1,"text":"have taken the view that the Budget was effectively "},{"start":184.1,"end":184.78,"text":"reckless. "}],[{"start":184.78,"end":188.42,"text":"You remember the statement we've had enough of experts. ","translations":["你还记得我说过我们已经受够了专家了。","你记得我们已经受够了专家的说法。"]}],[{"start":188.42,"end":191.36,"text":"The \"mini\" Budget was really the culmination ","translations":["“迷你”预算实际上是英国脱欧公投以来实施的经济政策的高潮。","这份“小型”预算案实际上是自英国脱欧投票以来所实施的经济政策的顶点。"]},{"start":191.36,"end":193.76,"text":"of the economic policies that have been put "},{"start":193.76,"end":195.8,"text":"in place since the Brexit vote. "}],[{"start":195.8,"end":198.26,"text":"Brexit's proponents refused to even discuss ","translations":["脱欧的支持者甚至拒绝讨论脱欧是影响英国表现的一个因素。","英国脱欧的支持者甚至拒绝讨论英国脱欧是影响英国表现的一个因素的想法。"]},{"start":198.26,"end":202.55,"text":"the idea that Brexit's a factor in the UK's performance. "}],[{"start":202.55,"end":205.4,"text":"Brexit opponents, or Remainers, want ","translations":["脱欧反对者或留欧派想把一切都归咎于脱欧。","英国脱欧的反对者，即留欧派，想把一切都归咎于英国脱欧。"]},{"start":205.4,"end":207.41,"text":"to pin everything on Brexit. "}],[{"start":207.41,"end":209.88,"text":"The truth is inevitably somewhere in between. ","translations":["真相不可避免地介于两者之间。","事实不可避免地介于两者之间。"]}],[{"start":209.88,"end":212.84,"text":"But to say that Brexit isn't a factor in what you're seeing ","translations":["但如果说英国退欧不是影响英国经济表现的一个因素，那就太愚蠢了。","但如果说英国脱欧不是你所看到的英国表现的一个因素，那就太傻了。"]},{"start":212.84,"end":214.34,"text":"in the UK performance is silly. "}],[{"start":214.34,"end":215.57,"text":"Of course, it is. ","translations":["当然是这样。","当然，它是。"]}],[{"start":215.57,"end":218.24,"text":"We're starting to see a very interesting pattern emerging, ","translations":["我们开始看到一个非常有趣的模式正在出现，将英国与其他发达经济体的表现进行比较。","我们开始看到一个非常有趣的模式出现，将英国与其他发达经济体的表现进行比较。"]},{"start":218.24,"end":219.92000000000002,"text":"comparing Britain with the performance "},{"start":219.92000000000002,"end":221.42000000000002,"text":"of other advanced economies. "}],[{"start":223.1,"end":225.89,"text":"After the pandemic, there was a trade recovery ","translations":["疫情过后，七国集团其他成员国的贸易都出现了复苏，而英国的贸易复苏则基本持平。","大流行之后，所有其他G7国家都出现了贸易复苏，而英国的贸易复苏或多或少是持平的。"]},{"start":225.89,"end":229.1,"text":"by all the other G7 countries and Britain's trade recovery "},{"start":229.1,"end":230.315,"text":"has been more or less flat. "}],[{"start":230.315,"end":232.905,"text":"So the UK fell behind in its trade intensity. ","translations":["因此，英国在贸易强度上落后了。","因此，英国在贸易强度上落后了。"]}],[{"start":232.905,"end":234.53,"text":"One of the other things you can measure ","translations":["你可以衡量的另一件事是，英国中小企业与外国同行之间贸易关系的减少。","你可以衡量的其他事情之一是英国的小公司和他们的外国同行之间的贸易关系的数量下降。"]},{"start":234.53,"end":237.41,"text":"is the drop off in the number of trade relationships "},{"start":237.41,"end":239.57,"text":"between smaller companies in the UK "},{"start":239.57,"end":241.41,"text":"and their foreign counterparts. "}],[{"start":241.41,"end":242.57,"text":"And that's important because it tells you ","translations":["这很重要，因为它告诉你一些关于贸易模式的事情，但也告诉你一些英国的小公司过去是如何通过逐步扩大业务，将产品销售到欧洲单一市场来发展的，而这种情况已经不再发生了。","这很重要，因为它告诉你一些关于贸易模式的信息，也告诉你一些关于英国的小公司曾经通过逐步扩大他们的业务，把东西卖到欧洲单一市场来实现增长的方式，而现在这种情况根本没有发生。"]},{"start":242.57,"end":244.237,"text":"something about trade patterns, but also "},{"start":244.237,"end":245.612,"text":"tells you something about the way "},{"start":245.612,"end":247.55,"text":"that smaller companies in the UK used "},{"start":247.55,"end":249.53,"text":"to grow by gradually expanding their business, "},{"start":249.53,"end":251.66,"text":"selling stuff into the European single market, "},{"start":251.66,"end":253.74,"text":"and that's simply not happening anymore. "}],[{"start":253.74,"end":257.13,"text":"The LSE has calculated that the number of relationships ","translations":["根据伦敦经济学院的计算，在《贸易与合作协定》(Trade and Cooperation Agreement)生效后的头6个月里，英国与欧盟之间的关系数量下降了约三分之一。","伦敦经济学院计算过，在贸易和合作协议生效后的前六个月，英国和欧盟之间的关系数量下降了约三分之一。"]},{"start":257.13,"end":260.22,"text":"between the UK and the EU fell by about a third "},{"start":260.22,"end":262.8,"text":"in the first six months after the Trade and Cooperation "},{"start":262.8,"end":264.24,"text":"Agreement came into force. "}],[{"start":264.24,"end":266.1,"text":"The Resolution Foundation has calculated ","translations":["根据决议基金会的计算，长期来看，人均工资将减少470英镑。","决议基金会计算出，从长远来看，对工资的打击将是每人470英镑。"]},{"start":266.1,"end":272.872,"text":"that the long run hit to wages will be 470 pounds per person. "}],[{"start":272.872,"end":276,"text":"Brexit has increased bureaucracy. ","translations":["英国脱欧增加了官僚主义。","英国脱欧增加了官僚主义。"]}],[{"start":276,"end":277.8,"text":"Many small businesses have really ","translations":["许多小企业都在努力应对这一问题。","许多小企业确实在努力适应这种情况。"]},{"start":277.8,"end":281.82,"text":"struggled to get to grips with that. "}],[{"start":281.82,"end":282.78,"text":"I'm Kiran Tawadey. ","translations":["我Kiran Tawadey。","我是Kiran Tawadey。"]}],[{"start":282.78,"end":284.64,"text":"Hampstead is an organic tea company. ","translations":["汉普斯特德是一家有机茶叶公司。","汉普斯特德是一家有机茶公司。"]}],[{"start":284.64,"end":286.83,"text":"We import tea from all over the world ","translations":["我们从世界各地进口茶叶并销往世界各地。","我们从世界各地进口茶叶，并在世界各地销售。"]},{"start":286.83,"end":288.3,"text":"and sell it all over the world. "}],[{"start":288.3,"end":290.71,"text":"We were told that we would have the most amazing deal. ","translations":["我们被告知，我们将获得最惊人的交易。","我们被告知，我们将拥有最令人惊奇的交易。"]}],[{"start":290.71,"end":292.62,"text":"We're going to get our sovereignty ","translations":["我们将获得我们的主权，我们将保留留在欧盟的所有优势。","我们将得到我们的主权，我们将保持在欧盟的所有优势。"]},{"start":292.62,"end":294.51,"text":"and we were going to keep all the advantages "},{"start":294.51,"end":295.44,"text":"of being in the EU. "}],[{"start":295.44,"end":297.565,"text":"As a business, we were dumb enough to believe that. ","translations":["作为一个企业，我们愚蠢地相信了这一点。","作为一个企业，我们愚蠢地相信了这一点。"]}],[{"start":297.565,"end":300.27,"text":"Come January last year, we got an order from Italy, ","translations":["去年1月，我们收到了来自意大利的订单，我们像往常一样发货了，以为会有一些文书工作，然后我们会弄清楚。","去年1月，我们收到了一份来自意大利的订单，我们像往常一样发货，以为会有一点文书工作，我们会解决的。"]},{"start":300.27,"end":302.238,"text":"we shipped it, as normal, thinking "},{"start":302.238,"end":303.78,"text":"there'll be a little bit of paperwork "},{"start":303.78,"end":304.78,"text":"and we'll figure it out. "}],[{"start":304.78,"end":308.82,"text":"And it sat for 12 weeks in different customs' houses. ","translations":["它在不同的海关存放了12个星期。","结果它在不同的海关大楼里坐了12个星期。"]}],[{"start":308.82,"end":310.415,"text":"So the reality was very different. ","translations":["所以现实很不一样。","因此，现实是非常不同的。"]}],[{"start":310.415,"end":311.122,"text":"I'm Rob. ","translations":["我抢劫。","我是罗布。"]}],[{"start":311.122,"end":312.165,"text":"I'm Vicky. ","translations":["我是维琪。","我是Vicky。"]}],[{"start":312.165,"end":315.78,"text":"And we co-founded Little Star Jewellery in 2017 ","translations":["2017年，我们作为夫妻团队共同创立了小星星珠宝。","我们在2017年作为丈夫和妻子的团队共同创立了小星星珠宝。"]},{"start":315.78,"end":319.27,"text":"as a husband and wife team. "}],[{"start":319.27,"end":322.96,"text":"The plan was always to establish the brand in the UK first, ","translations":["我们的计划一直是先在英国建立品牌，然后是爱尔兰，然后是法国，最后是德国。","我们的计划一直是先在英国建立品牌，然后是爱尔兰，再到法国，再到德国。"]},{"start":322.96,"end":325.945,"text":"and then Ireland, onwards to France, onwards to Germany. "}],[{"start":325.945,"end":328.93,"text":"The whole question of Brexit didn't really ","translations":["我并没有过多考虑英国脱欧的整个问题，因为我从来没有想过，对企业的发展和发展来说，脱欧会如此复杂。","整个英国脱欧的问题并没有真正进入我的思考，因为在任何时候我都不认为这对企业的成长和发展会有多么复杂。"]},{"start":328.93,"end":331.54,"text":"come into my thought much because at no point "},{"start":331.54,"end":334.33,"text":"did I think it would be as complicated for businesses "},{"start":334.33,"end":335.288,"text":"to grow and to develop. "}],[{"start":335.288,"end":337.33,"text":"Remember, when we were part of the single market, ","translations":["请记住，当我们还是单一市场的一部分时，你可以在伯明翰把一盒茶或一包香肠扔进一辆货车的后面，然后毫无阻碍地开到巴塞罗那、波恩或布鲁塞尔。","记住，当我们是单一市场的一部分时，你可以把一盒茶叶或一包香肠扔进伯明翰的面包车后面，然后把它开到巴塞罗那，或波恩，或布鲁塞尔，没有任何阻碍。"]},{"start":337.33,"end":340.12,"text":"you could throw a box of tea or a packet of bangers "},{"start":340.12,"end":342.22,"text":"into the back of a van in Birmingham "},{"start":342.22,"end":345.55,"text":"and just drive it to Barcelona, or Bonn, or Brussels "},{"start":345.55,"end":347.2,"text":"without let or hindrance. "}],[{"start":347.2,"end":348.71500000000003,"text":"Now you can't do that. ","translations":["现在你不能那样做了。","现在你不能这样做了。"]}],[{"start":348.71500000000003,"end":351.43,"text":"The reality was January to June, we couldn't ship anything ","translations":["实际情况是，从1月到6月，我们无法向欧盟运送任何东西，什么也不能。","现实情况是，从1月到6月，我们不能向欧盟运送任何东西，什么都不能。"]},{"start":351.43,"end":352.87,"text":"to the EU, nothing. "}],[{"start":352.87,"end":355.12,"text":"It's 27 countries, they all have different borders, ","translations":["有27个国家，他们都有不同的边界，他们都有不同的规则。","它有27个国家，它们都有不同的边界，它们都有不同的规则。"]},{"start":355.12,"end":356.62,"text":"they all have different rules. "}],[{"start":356.62,"end":358.78,"text":"And we were treated as a third country. ","translations":["我们被当作第三国对待。","而我们被当作第三国对待。"]}],[{"start":358.78,"end":360.7,"text":"And we just had to suck it up. ","translations":["我们只能忍气吞声。","我们只得忍气吞声。"]}],[{"start":360.7,"end":362.98,"text":"Come May, I decided I needed to do something. ","translations":["到了五月，我决定我需要做点什么。","到了五月，我决定我需要做一些事情。"]}],[{"start":365.87,"end":369.04,"text":"I said, what if I set up my own entity in Europe ","translations":["我说，如果我在欧洲建立自己的实体，让它成为我们公司和产品的主分销商，怎么样？","我说，如果我在欧洲建立自己的实体，让它成为我们公司和我们产品的主分销商，会怎么样？"]},{"start":369.04,"end":371.62,"text":"and made that the master distributor for our company "},{"start":371.62,"end":374.62,"text":"and for our products. "}],[{"start":374.62,"end":376.48,"text":"And rather than sending small consignments ","translations":["与其一次发一小批货，那样既昂贵又复杂，耗时又耗资源为什么不每隔一段时间发一批大货呢。","与其每次发送小批货物，这非常昂贵，复杂，耗费时间，耗费资源，为什么不每隔一段时间就做一次大的货物。"]},{"start":376.48,"end":379.12,"text":"at a time, which were very costly, and complicated, "},{"start":379.12,"end":381.85,"text":"and time-hungry, and resource-hungry why not "},{"start":381.85,"end":385.075,"text":"just do one big consignment every so often. "}],[{"start":385.075,"end":388.12,"text":"Clear customs, all those formalities, VAT once, ","translations":["清关，所有手续，一次增值税，然后从仓库分发给你在欧盟的所有客户。","清关，所有这些手续，增值税一次，然后从仓库分发到你在欧盟的所有客户。"]},{"start":388.12,"end":390.46,"text":"and then distribute out of the warehouse "},{"start":390.46,"end":393.7,"text":"to all of your clients in the European Union. "}],[{"start":393.7,"end":397.42,"text":"That means less business taking place in the UK ","translations":["这意味着英国的商业活动将减少，而欧盟的商业活动将增加。","这意味着在英国发生的业务减少，而在欧盟发生的业务增加。"]},{"start":397.42,"end":400.9,"text":"and more business taking place in the European Union. "}],[{"start":400.9,"end":403,"text":"It became just unviable for us to continue ","translations":["我们无法继续从英国出口，并将英国作为我们的欧洲分销中心。","对我们来说，继续从英国出口并将英国作为我们的欧洲分销中心是不可行的。"]},{"start":403,"end":405.28,"text":"to export from the UK and use the UK "},{"start":405.28,"end":408.01,"text":"as our European distribution hub. "}],[{"start":408.01,"end":409.94,"text":"Lorries would sit there for days on end. ","translations":["卡车会停在那里好几天。","货车会在那里连续停几天。"]}],[{"start":409.94,"end":413.17,"text":"So we moved our entire European business to Poland. ","translations":["所以我们把整个欧洲业务搬到了波兰。","因此，我们把我们的整个欧洲业务转移到波兰。"]}],[{"start":413.17,"end":414.94,"text":"That immediately halved the amount ","translations":["这立即使通过这个仓库的货物数量减半。","这使通过这个仓库的产品数量立即减少了一半。"]},{"start":414.94,"end":417.14,"text":"of product coming through this warehouse. "}],[{"start":417.14,"end":419.23,"text":"We are now using fewer freight partners ","translations":["我们现在使用更少的英国货运伙伴，更多地使用德国和波兰，向欧盟国家支付关税。","我们现在在英国使用更少的货运伙伴，在德国和波兰使用更多的货运伙伴，向欧盟国家支付我们的关税。"]},{"start":419.23,"end":421.06,"text":"in the UK, more in Germany and Poland, "},{"start":421.06,"end":424.54,"text":"paying our customs duties to EU countries. "}],[{"start":424.54,"end":427.24,"text":"We're employing fewer people in the UK and more in Poland. ","translations":["我们在英国雇佣的人越来越少，而在波兰雇佣的人越来越多。","我们在英国的雇员减少了，在波兰的雇员增加了。"]}],[{"start":427.24,"end":429.49,"text":"It's a reduction in money that we ","translations":["这是我们向英国经济支付的资金的减少。","这是我们支付给英国经济的钱的减少。"]},{"start":429.49,"end":431.77,"text":"are paying to the UK economy. "}],[{"start":431.77,"end":433.935,"text":"We were lucky that we were able to do that. ","translations":["我们很幸运能够做到这一点。","我们很幸运，我们能够做到这一点。"]}],[{"start":433.935,"end":435.46,"text":"We've got some agents in France. ","translations":["我们在法国有一些探员。","我们在法国有一些代理商。"]}],[{"start":435.46,"end":439.15,"text":"We're doing really well in the Netherlands and in Spain. ","translations":["我们在荷兰和西班牙做得很好。","我们在荷兰和西班牙做得非常好。"]}],[{"start":439.15,"end":441.97,"text":"All of that has just disappeared. ","translations":["这一切都消失了。","所有这些都刚刚消失了。"]}],[{"start":444.025,"end":446.23,"text":"We lost so much business overnight with Holland, ","translations":["我们在荷兰一夜之间失去了很多生意，但这并不意味着我们已经有足够的生意，我们会去阿姆斯特丹设立一个办事处。","我们在荷兰一夜之间失去了这么多业务，但这并不意味着我们有足够的业务已经建立，我们会去在阿姆斯特丹设立一个办公室。"]},{"start":446.23,"end":448.81,"text":"but it doesn't mean that we have enough business already "},{"start":448.81,"end":452.35,"text":"established that we'd go and set up an office in Amsterdam. "}],[{"start":452.35,"end":456.46,"text":"It's not viable for a business of our size of two people. ","translations":["这对我们两个人规模的公司来说是行不通的。","对于我们这种规模的两个人的企业来说，这是不可行的。"]}],[{"start":456.46,"end":459.07,"text":"Getting the product to customers in the European ","translations":["把产品送到欧盟的客户手中原本需要2天，现在变成了21天。","把产品送到欧盟的客户手中，本来是2天，现在变成了21天。"]},{"start":459.07,"end":462.07,"text":"Union would have been 2 days, has now become 21 days. "}],[{"start":462.07,"end":463.57,"text":"The only angle for us around that ","translations":["对我们来说，解决这个问题的唯一途径是与分销商达成交易，但这些人的利润率在30%至35%之间。","我们唯一的办法是与分销商进行交易，但这些人的利润率在30%到35%之间。"]},{"start":463.57,"end":465.34000000000003,"text":"is to do deals with distributors, "},{"start":465.34000000000003,"end":467.38,"text":"but those people work on between 30 per cent "},{"start":467.38,"end":469.06,"text":"and 35 per cent margins. "}],[{"start":469.06,"end":471.79,"text":"We're left with virtually nothing ","translations":["我们要么什么都不剩，要么就放弃生意。","我们几乎一无所获，否则我们就会放弃这个业务。"]},{"start":471.79,"end":474.46,"text":"or we let the business go. "}],[{"start":474.46,"end":477.25,"text":"We got a Dutch sales agent who opened over 30 doors ","translations":["我们有一个荷兰的销售代理在两个月的时间里开了30多家店，30多名顾客变成了2名因为只有2名顾客会为从我们这里进货而烦恼。","我们有一个荷兰销售代理，他在两个月的时间里打开了30多扇门，但30多个客户已经变成了2个，因为其中只有2个可以真正地被打扰，他们必须做什么才能从我们这里获得库存。"]},{"start":477.25,"end":480.25,"text":"in the space of two months, was over 30 customers have become 2 "},{"start":480.25,"end":482.35,"text":"because only 2 of them can actually "},{"start":482.35,"end":484.42,"text":"be bothered with the implications of what they've "},{"start":484.42,"end":486.06,"text":"got to do to get stock from us. "}],[{"start":486.06,"end":487.435,"text":"It's just too much of a headache. ","translations":["这太让人头疼了。","这实在是太令人头疼了。"]}],[{"start":487.435,"end":490.3,"text":"That is the long-term danger for the British economy. ","translations":["这是英国经济的长期危险。","这就是英国经济的长期危险。"]}],[{"start":490.3,"end":493.06,"text":"That smaller companies that used to expand ","translations":["在2016年之前，规模较小的公司很容易通过进入欧洲市场进行扩张，但现在它们不会这么做了。","那些曾经通过开始进入欧洲市场进行扩张的小公司，在2016年之前是非常容易做到的，只是不会这样做而已。"]},{"start":493.06,"end":496.07,"text":"by starting to move into European markets, "},{"start":496.07,"end":498.94,"text":"which was very easy to do before 2016, "},{"start":498.94,"end":500.392,"text":"will simply just not do that. "}],[{"start":500.392,"end":502.1,"text":"We were just upsetting all our customers. ","translations":["我们让所有的顾客都很不高兴。","我们只是让我们所有的客户感到不安。"]}],[{"start":502.1,"end":503.5,"text":"One of them actually said to us, we ","translations":["其中一人对我们说，当我们可以从欧盟内部找到同等的产品时，我们不想再和英国打交道了。","其中一个客户实际上对我们说，我们不想再与英国打交道，因为我们可以从欧盟内部找到同等的产品。"]},{"start":503.5,"end":505.08299999999997,"text":"don't want to deal with the UK anymore "},{"start":505.08299999999997,"end":508.28,"text":"when we can find equal products from within the EU. "}],[{"start":508.28,"end":509.233,"text":"So I'm really sorry. ","translations":["所以我真的很抱歉。","所以我真的很抱歉。"]}],[{"start":509.233,"end":510.4,"text":"It was a tough conversation. ","translations":["这是一次艰难的对话。","那是一次艰难的对话。"]}],[{"start":510.4,"end":511.66,"text":"We went to a trade show. ","translations":["我们去了一个贸易展。","我们去参加了一个贸易展。"]}],[{"start":511.66,"end":515.32,"text":"No European customers came to the UK pavilion. ","translations":["英国馆没有欧洲客户。","没有欧洲客户来到英国馆。"]}],[{"start":515.32,"end":516.902,"text":"And we overheard one of them saying, ","translations":["我们无意中听到其中一人说，去那里没意义。","我们无意中听到其中一个人说，去那里没有意义。"]},{"start":516.902,"end":518.11,"text":"there's no point going there. "}],[{"start":518.11,"end":520.549,"text":"With Brexit, we don't even know what's going to happen. ","translations":["英国脱欧后，我们甚至不知道会发生什么。","随着英国脱欧，我们甚至不知道会发生什么。"]}],[{"start":520.549,"end":523.96,"text":"So there's no point trying to build new alliances ","translations":["因此，试图与英国供应商建立新的联盟是没有意义的。","因此，试图与英国供应商建立新的联盟是没有意义的。"]},{"start":523.96,"end":525.355,"text":"with British suppliers. "}],[{"start":525.355,"end":527.56,"text":"The damage from non-tariff barriers ","translations":["非关税壁垒的危害在于，它把英国堵在了一堵墙后面。","非关税壁垒的损害是它将英国置于一堵墙之后。"]},{"start":527.56,"end":529.54,"text":"is it puts the UK behind a wall. "}],[{"start":529.54,"end":531.73,"text":"The European Union, 27 countries, ","translations":["欧盟27个国家，对货物、人员、资本和劳动力的流动有一套统一的规则。","欧盟有27个国家，它们对货物、人员、资本和劳动力的流动有一套规则。"]},{"start":531.73,"end":535.45,"text":"that have one set of rules for the movement of goods, people, "},{"start":535.45,"end":536.89,"text":"capital, and labour. "}],[{"start":536.89,"end":540.76,"text":"It's broadly more cost, more aggro, more uncertainty, ","translations":["总的来说，它的成本更高，更愤怒，更多不确定性，更多延误，更低效率。","这大致是更多的成本，更多的攻击性，更多的不确定性，更多的延迟，更少的效率。"]},{"start":540.76,"end":543.46,"text":"more delays, less efficiency. "}],[{"start":543.46,"end":545.44,"text":"In some cases, a sort of unequal playing ","translations":["在某些情况下，与海外竞争对手的竞争环境是不平等的。","在某些情况下，与海外的竞争者有一种不平等的竞争环境。"]},{"start":545.44,"end":547.36,"text":"field with competitors overseas. "}],[{"start":547.36,"end":549.16,"text":"A French company will buy from Germany ","translations":["法国公司将从德国购买，因为他们可能更容易获得同样的产品，没有任何额外的成本，我们必须申请从英国出口。","一家法国公司会从德国购买，因为他们可能会更容易得到同样的产品，而且没有任何额外的费用，而我们必须把它从英国运出去。"]},{"start":549.16,"end":552.34,"text":"because they'll probably be able to get the same product easier "},{"start":552.34,"end":554.95,"text":"and without any of the extra costs "},{"start":554.95,"end":558.88,"text":"that we're having to apply to get it out of the UK. "}],[{"start":558.88,"end":561.85,"text":"We design all of the range here, and then we ","translations":["我们在这里设计所有的产品，然后把它们寄给泰国和香港的制造商。","我们在这里设计所有的产品系列，然后我们把它发给泰国和香港的制造商。"]},{"start":561.85,"end":565.85,"text":"send it out to manufacturers in Thailand and Hong Kong. "}],[{"start":565.85,"end":568.66,"text":"We have a tariff for it coming into the UK, ","translations":["我们对进入英国的产品征收关税，然后在从英国出口时必须支付另一项关税，因为它不是在英国生产的。","我们对进入英国的产品征收关税，然后当我们把产品送出英国时，必须支付另一个关税，因为它不是在英国生产的。"]},{"start":568.66,"end":570.31,"text":"then have to pay another tariff when "},{"start":570.31,"end":572.89,"text":"we're sending out of the UK, because it's not "},{"start":572.89,"end":574.185,"text":"produced in the UK. "}],[{"start":574.185,"end":575.89,"text":"The EU is very bureaucratic. ","translations":["欧盟非常官僚。","欧盟是非常官僚的。"]}],[{"start":575.89,"end":578.17,"text":"Before that we were within the bureaucracy and now ","translations":["在此之前，我们是官僚机构的一员，而现在我们是它的局外人。","之前我们在官僚机构内，现在我们在官僚机构外。"]},{"start":578.17,"end":579.325,"text":"we're outside of it. "}],[{"start":579.325,"end":580.94,"text":"The whole story about EU red tape ","translations":["从我们的角度来看，欧盟的繁文缛节让企业变得更加困难的整个故事完全是一个谎言。","从我们的角度来看，关于欧盟的繁文缛节使企业更加困难的整个故事完全是一个谎言。"]},{"start":580.94,"end":583.607,"text":"making things more difficult for businesses from our perspective "},{"start":583.607,"end":584.51,"text":"is a complete lie. "}],[{"start":586.46,"end":588.47,"text":"Since 2016, business investment has ","translations":["自2016年以来，七国集团(G7)其他所有国家的商业投资都在增长，唯独英国没有。","自2016年以来，所有其他G7国家的商业投资都在增长，但在英国却没有。"]},{"start":588.47,"end":593.033,"text":"been growing in all other G7 countries, but not in the UK. "}],[{"start":593.033,"end":594.95,"text":"You can see that for a very long time business ","translations":["你可以看到，在很长一段时间里，英国的商业投资呈上升曲线，但自2016年特别是英国退欧公投以来，它一直处于停滞状态。","你可以看到，在很长一段时间内，英国的商业投资是一个上升的曲线，但特别是自2016年和英国脱欧投票以来，它一直处于平稳状态。"]},{"start":594.95,"end":597.35,"text":"investment was an upward curve in the UK, "},{"start":597.35,"end":600.17,"text":"but since 2016 in particular and the Brexit vote, "},{"start":600.17,"end":601.458,"text":"it's been plateauing. "}],[{"start":601.458,"end":603.5,"text":"And the government's been trying to rectify this. ","translations":["政府一直在努力改变这一点。","政府一直在努力纠正这一点。"]}],[{"start":603.5,"end":605.125,"text":"It's been throwing lots of money at it. ","translations":["它在这方面投入了大量资金。","它在这方面投入了大量的资金。"]}],[{"start":605.125,"end":607.43,"text":"They've introduced something called the superdeduction, ","translations":["他们引入了一种叫做“超级扣除”的东西，如果你在资本和创新上投资，你会得到巨额补贴，但这并没有真正改变表率。","他们已经引入了一个叫做超级扣除的东西，如果你投资于资本和创新，你会得到巨大的补贴，但它并没有真正改变表盘。"]},{"start":607.43,"end":609.83,"text":"where you get huge allowances if you invest "},{"start":609.83,"end":612.86,"text":"in capital and innovation, but it hasn't really "},{"start":612.86,"end":613.767,"text":"shifted the dial. "}],[{"start":613.767,"end":616.67,"text":"And really worrying for the future of our economy ","translations":["真正让人担心的是我们经济的未来，因为最终，投资驱动着资本和经济未来增长的能力。","对于我们经济的未来来说，这确实令人担忧，因为最终，投资推动了资本和经济在未来的增长能力。"]},{"start":616.67,"end":619.58,"text":"because in the end, investment drives "},{"start":619.58,"end":622.16,"text":"the capital and the ability for economies "},{"start":622.16,"end":623.352,"text":"to grow into the future. "}],[{"start":623.352,"end":624.81,"text":"And some people are saying, I mean, ","translations":["有些人说，我的意思是，无论怎么想象，脱欧都不是唯一的事情，但有些事情正在发生。","有些人说，我的意思是，无论如何，英国脱欧不是唯一的事情，但有些事情正在发生。"]},{"start":624.81,"end":627.393,"text":"Brexit's not the only thing by any stretch of the imagination, "},{"start":627.393,"end":628.79,"text":"but something is going on. "}],[{"start":628.79,"end":632.27,"text":"There might be a small effect that the UK is a more service ","translations":["与其他国家相比，英国是一个更受服务业驱动的经济体，这可能会产生一个小影响。","也许有一个小的影响，即英国是一个比其他国家更多的服务业驱动的经济体。"]},{"start":632.27,"end":633.89,"text":"sector driven economy than others. "}],[{"start":633.89,"end":636.32,"text":"But France is just as much of a service sector ","translations":["但法国与英国一样，都是服务业经济体。","但法国和英国一样都是服务业经济体。"]},{"start":636.32,"end":637.77,"text":"economy as the UK. "}],[{"start":637.77,"end":639.68,"text":"Germany, big manufacturing economy, ","translations":["德国，制造业大国，在制造业方面并不比英国强多少。","德国是大的制造业经济体，也不比英国的制造业经济体多多少。"]},{"start":639.68,"end":641.54,"text":"isn't that much more of a manufacturing "},{"start":641.54,"end":642.89,"text":"economy than the UK. "}],[{"start":642.89,"end":644.3,"text":"And in every other country, we've ","translations":["在其他国家，我们也看到了更多的商业投资。","而在其他所有国家，我们看到更多的商业投资。"]},{"start":644.3,"end":646.46,"text":"seen much more business investment. "}],[{"start":646.46,"end":647.72,"text":"This is the Brexit effect. ","translations":["这就是英国退欧效应。","这就是英国脱欧的影响。"]}],[{"start":647.72,"end":650.45,"text":"People don't know the direction of the UK economy. ","translations":["人们不知道英国经济的走向。","人们不知道英国经济的发展方向。"]}],[{"start":650.45,"end":653.315,"text":"Inevitably business investment doesn't grow as strongly. ","translations":["不可避免的是，商业投资的增长没有那么强劲。","不可避免的是，商业投资的增长并不那么强劲。"]}],[{"start":656.65,"end":661.12,"text":"We've seen in all areas, in prices, in terms of investment, ","translations":["我们在所有领域都看到了，在价格、投资和贸易方面，我们看到了英国脱欧的负面影响，我们现在可以确定为英国脱欧的影响，而不是大流行的影响，也不是能源危机的影响。","我们在所有领域都看到了，在价格方面，在投资方面，在贸易方面，我们看到了由于英国脱欧而产生的负面效应，我们现在可以把它确定为英国脱欧效应，而不是大流行病效应，不是能源危机效应。"]},{"start":661.12,"end":664.51,"text":"and in terms of trade, we're seeing negative effects "},{"start":664.51,"end":667.96,"text":"due to Brexit, which we can now pinpoint as a Brexit effect, "},{"start":667.96,"end":671,"text":"not a pandemic effect, not an energy crisis effect. "}],[{"start":671,"end":673.715,"text":"These are very clearly Brexit effects. ","translations":["这些都是非常明显的脱欧影响。","这些都是非常明显的英国脱欧效应。"]}],[{"start":673.715,"end":676.09,"text":"Plainly there's been a huge impact on the British economy ","translations":["显然，新冠疫情对英国经济造成了巨大影响。","显然，Covid大流行对英国经济造成了巨大影响。"]},{"start":676.09,"end":677.68,"text":"caused by the Covid pandemic. "}],[{"start":677.68,"end":680.745,"text":"Equally the supply chain effects of the Ukraine war, ","translations":["同样，乌克兰战争对供应链的影响，尤其是对能源价格的影响。","同样，乌克兰战争的供应链影响，特别是对能源价格的影响。"]},{"start":680.745,"end":682.12,"text":"particularly on the energy price. "}],[{"start":682.12,"end":684.37,"text":"It would be ludicrous to claim that problems facing ","translations":["把英国经济面临的问题完全归咎于脱欧是荒谬的，但你可以做的是将英国与其他国家进行比较。","声称英国经济面临的问题完全归咎于英国脱欧是可笑的，但你可以做的是将英国和其他国家进行比较。"]},{"start":684.37,"end":686.71,"text":"the British economy are exclusively down to Brexit, "},{"start":686.71,"end":689.77,"text":"but what you can do is to draw a comparison between Britain "},{"start":689.77,"end":691.545,"text":"and other countries. "}],[{"start":691.545,"end":694.51,"text":"We see the UK pretty close to the bottom of the league table ","translations":["我们认为，就经济增长预测而言，英国非常接近排名的底部，特别是在2023年。","我们看到，在对经济增长的预测方面，特别是在2023年，英国相当接近于联盟表的底部。"]},{"start":694.51,"end":696.71,"text":"in terms of the forecast for economic growth, "},{"start":696.71,"end":698.38,"text":"particularly in 2023. "}],[{"start":698.38,"end":701.66,"text":"So the UK essentially sees no growth at all. ","translations":["所以英国基本上看不到任何增长。","因此，英国基本上看不到任何增长。"]}],[{"start":701.66,"end":704.89,"text":"And the only country that was worse than the UK ","translations":["唯一比英国更糟糕的国家是俄罗斯。","而唯一比英国更糟的国家是被制裁的俄罗斯。"]},{"start":704.89,"end":706.6,"text":"was sanctioned Russia. "}],[{"start":706.6,"end":709.93,"text":"You can explore the gap between the UK's performance, which ","translations":["你可以探究英国的表现与其他未受英国退欧影响的经济体之间的差距。","你可以探讨一下英国的表现，它独特地遭受了英国脱欧的影响，而其他经济体的表现则没有。"]},{"start":709.93,"end":712.93,"text":"has uniquely suffered Brexit, and the performance "},{"start":712.93,"end":714.565,"text":"of other economies that have not. "}],[{"start":714.565,"end":716.482,"text":"The UK government would argue that's something ","translations":["英国政府会认为这与大流行的蹦极效应有关，英国先是下降，然后更快地回升，现在情况又开始稳定下来。","英国政府会认为，这与大流行病的蹦极效应有关，在这种情况下，英国下跌，然后更快地回升，现在情况又稳定下来了。"]},{"start":716.482,"end":718.9,"text":"to do with the bungee jump effect of the pandemic "},{"start":718.9,"end":721.55,"text":"where Britain went down, then came back up more quickly, "},{"start":721.55,"end":723.295,"text":"and now things are settling down again. "}],[{"start":723.295,"end":725.2,"text":"I think it's really easy for the government ","translations":["我认为政府很容易把脱欧效应推到地毯下，把一切都归咎于Covid，现在又把一切都推到乌克兰。","我认为，政府试图把英国脱欧的影响推到地毯下，把一切都归咎于Covid，现在又把一切都归咎于乌克兰，这真的很容易。"]},{"start":725.2,"end":728.085,"text":"to try and push the Brexit effect under the carpet "},{"start":728.085,"end":730.21,"text":"and blame everything onto Covid, and now everything "},{"start":730.21,"end":731.1,"text":"onto Ukraine. "}],[{"start":731.1,"end":732.85,"text":"I can see it in the figures and in the way ","translations":["我可以从数据和我们的业务运营方式中看出，去年英国脱欧给我们造成了严重的打击。","我可以从数据和我们的业务运作方式中看到，我们去年确实受到了英国脱欧的严重打击。"]},{"start":732.85,"end":735.04,"text":"that our business is operating that we were really "},{"start":735.04,"end":736.6,"text":"hit badly by Brexit last year. "}],[{"start":736.6,"end":738.76,"text":"We've put measures in place that are ","translations":["不幸的是，我们采取的措施对英国经济不利，但对我们有利。","我们已经采取了一些措施，不幸的是，这些措施对英国经济不利，但会帮助我们。"]},{"start":738.76,"end":740.98,"text":"detrimental to the British economy unfortunately, "},{"start":740.98,"end":742.48,"text":"but will help us. "}],[{"start":742.48,"end":744.04,"text":"The Office for Budget Responsibility ","translations":["英国预算责任办公室(Office for Budget Responsibility)认为，退欧最终将导致英国经济衰退4%。","预算责任办公室认为，最终英国脱欧将导致英国的经济状况恶化4%。"]},{"start":744.04,"end":746.62,"text":"thinks that ultimately Brexit will "},{"start":746.62,"end":749.68,"text":"cause the UK to be 4 per cent worse off. "}],[{"start":749.68,"end":754.27,"text":"It's about 100bn pounds a year that the economy is not ","translations":["每年大约有1000亿英镑的经济不能产生400亿英镑左右的税收收入。","这大约是每年1000亿英镑的经济不产生400亿英镑左右的税收。"]},{"start":754.27,"end":758.6,"text":"producing 40bn pounds of tax revenues or so. "}],[{"start":758.6,"end":762.49,"text":"We are poorer because we're not getting that economic growth ","translations":["我们更穷了，因为我们没有获得本该获得的经济增长。","我们更穷了，因为我们没有得到那种经济增长，否则我们就会这样做。"]},{"start":762.49,"end":764.335,"text":"that we otherwise would have done. "}],[{"start":766.795,"end":769.21,"text":"The Brexiteer notion of a Brexit dividend ","translations":["脱欧派关于“脱欧红利”的概念，往往基于英国可以拥有一个更灵活的经济这一理念。","脱欧派的“脱欧红利”概念往往是围绕着英国可以有一个更灵活的经济的想法。"]},{"start":769.21,"end":771.73,"text":"is often based around the idea that the UK "},{"start":771.73,"end":773.99,"text":"can have a nimbler economy. "}],[{"start":773.99,"end":775.24,"text":"It can deregulate. ","translations":["它可以放松。","它可以放松管制。"]}],[{"start":775.24,"end":777.82,"text":"The difficulty is, when you deregulate, you create ","translations":["困难在于，当你放松监管时，你会创建一个单独的监管体系。","困难的是，当你放松管制时，你会创造一个独立的监管体系。"]},{"start":777.82,"end":780.315,"text":"a separate regulatory system. "}],[{"start":780.315,"end":782.89,"text":"The chemical industry spent 500mn pounds ","translations":["化工行业在过去10年里花了5亿英镑在欧盟注册他们的化学品，这使他们可以进入英国市场和其他27个国家。","化学工业在十年间花费了5亿英镑在欧盟注册他们的化学品，这使他们能够进入英国市场和其他27个国家。"]},{"start":782.89,"end":786.34,"text":"over a decade registering their chemicals in the European "},{"start":786.34,"end":789.43,"text":"Union, which gave them access to the British market and 27 "},{"start":789.43,"end":790.33,"text":"other countries. "}],[{"start":790.33,"end":791.92,"text":"They're now having to re-register ","translations":["他们现在不得不将所有这些化学品重新注册为单独的英国注册，目前估计成本为20亿英镑。","他们现在不得不重新注册所有这些化学品，以获得一个单独的英国登记册，政府现在估计成本为20亿英镑。"]},{"start":791.92,"end":794.92,"text":"all of those chemicals for a separate UK register "},{"start":794.92,"end":798.915,"text":"at a cost now estimated by the government at 2bn pounds. "}],[{"start":798.915,"end":801.79,"text":"So what we've essentially done is ask industry ","translations":["所以我们所做的本质上是要求工业界花费数十亿英镑来复制欧盟已经存在的制度。","因此，我们所做的基本上是要求工业界花费数十亿英镑来重复一个在欧盟已经存在的制度。"]},{"start":801.79,"end":807.28,"text":"to spend billions of pounds duplicating a regime that "},{"start":807.28,"end":809,"text":"already existed in the EU. "}],[{"start":809,"end":810.5,"text":"And because we want to be sovereign, ","translations":["因为我们想成为独立自主的国家，我们想与众不同，我们正在建立自己的国家。","因为我们想成为主权国家，我们想与众不同，我们正在建立我们自己的制度。"]},{"start":810.5,"end":812.5,"text":"we want to be different, we're building our own. "}],[{"start":812.5,"end":814.3,"text":"But that is just cost. ","translations":["但这只是成本。","但这只是成本而已。"]}],[{"start":814.3,"end":817.48,"text":"I don't understand anyone who says that deregulation is going ","translations":["我不理解那些说放松管制将有利于工业的人。","我不理解那些说放松管制会给行业带来好处的人。"]},{"start":817.48,"end":818.86,"text":"to be a benefit to industry. "}],[{"start":818.86,"end":820.24,"text":"From my industry's point of view, ","translations":["从我们行业的角度来看，这只是额外的成本、官僚主义和没有任何好处的工作。","从我的行业的角度来看，这只不过是额外的成本、官僚主义和工作，没有任何好处。"]},{"start":820.24,"end":823.3,"text":"it is nothing but extra costs, bureaucracy, and work "},{"start":823.3,"end":824.95,"text":"for no advantage whatsoever. "}],[{"start":827.795,"end":829.24,"text":"It's a British business. ","translations":["这是一家英国公司。","这是一个英国企业。"]}],[{"start":829.24,"end":833.17,"text":"After we've left, the EU has faced a recruitment crisis. ","translations":["在我们离开后，欧盟面临着一场招聘危机。","我们离开后，欧盟面临着招聘危机。"]}],[{"start":833.17,"end":836.78,"text":"Areas like construction, hospitality, social care, ","translations":["比如建筑，酒店，社会关怀，农业。","像建筑业、酒店业、社会护理、农业等领域。"]},{"start":836.78,"end":837.912,"text":"agriculture. "}],[{"start":837.912,"end":840.37,"text":"Again, you can argue till you're blue in the face about how ","translations":["再一次，你可以争论到脸发青，有多少人因为英国脱欧而离开，或者有多少人是因为新冠病毒。","同样，你可以争论到你脸色发青，这其中有多少是英国脱欧，有多少人因为英国脱欧而离开，或者有多少是因为Covid。"]},{"start":840.37,"end":843.61,"text":"much of that is Brexit, how many people left because of Brexit, "},{"start":843.61,"end":845.56,"text":"or how much of that was because of Covid. "}],[{"start":845.56,"end":847.6,"text":"Some people would argue that's for the better, ","translations":["有些人会认为这样更好，因为我们已经切断了欧盟廉价劳动力的供应，这些劳动力可以在自由流动的情况下进入英国工作。","有些人认为这是好事，我们已经切断了欧盟廉价劳动力的供应，这些劳动力在自由流动的情况下可以到英国来工作。"]},{"start":847.6,"end":851.44,"text":"that we've cut off that supply of cheap European Union labour "},{"start":851.44,"end":854.05,"text":"that was able to come across to work in the UK under free "},{"start":854.05,"end":854.86,"text":"movement. "}],[{"start":854.86,"end":857.98,"text":"The idea eventually is that companies will invest more ","translations":["最终的想法是，企业将在机械和其他方面加大投资，以提高生产率，以弥补这一缺口。","最终的想法是，公司将在机械和其他方式上进行更多投资，以提高生产力，作为补偿。"]},{"start":857.98,"end":862.39,"text":"in machinery and other ways to enhance productivity "},{"start":862.39,"end":864.16,"text":"to compensate. "}],[{"start":864.16,"end":866.665,"text":"But it's certainly caused some disruption in the short-term. ","translations":["但它肯定在短期内造成了一些破坏。","但这在短期内肯定会造成一些干扰。"]}],[{"start":866.665,"end":869.53,"text":"And the idea that the government was putting forward last year ","translations":["政府去年提出的这是发展高技能、高工资经济计划的一部分的想法在当时是有问题的，在今天也是有问题的。","政府去年提出的想法，即这是发展高技能、高工资经济计划的一部分，在当时是有问题的，今天也是有问题的。"]},{"start":869.53,"end":871.27,"text":"that this was all part of the plan "},{"start":871.27,"end":875.5,"text":"to develop a high-skilled, high-wage economy "},{"start":875.5,"end":878.565,"text":"was problematic at the time and is problematic today. "}],[{"start":878.565,"end":880.21,"text":"So the end of free movement means ","translations":["因此，自由流动的结束意味着经济的重塑。","因此，自由流动的结束意味着经济被重新塑造。"]},{"start":880.21,"end":882.37,"text":"that the economy is reshaped. "}],[{"start":882.37,"end":885.82,"text":"For some industries, like hospitality and construction, ","translations":["对一些行业来说，比如酒店和建筑，或者软水果种植，这带来了一段痛苦的调整时期，因为这些行业是建立在自由流动的理念上的。","对于一些行业，如酒店业和建筑业，或软体水果种植业，这造成了一个痛苦的调整期，因为这些行业是以自由流动的想法为前提的。"]},{"start":885.82,"end":889.127,"text":"or soft fruit growing, that creates a painful period "},{"start":889.127,"end":890.71,"text":"of adjustment because those industries "},{"start":890.71,"end":894.28,"text":"were predicated on the idea that there would be free movement. "}],[{"start":894.28,"end":896.5,"text":"But ultimately that's a political choice. ","translations":["但归根结底，这是一种政治选择。","但这最终是一个政治选择。"]}],[{"start":896.5,"end":898.84,"text":"We don't have to have a soft fruit industry. ","translations":["我们不需要软性水果产业。","我们不一定要有软水果产业。"]}],[{"start":898.84,"end":901.03,"text":"We had one as a result of free movement. ","translations":["我们有一个自由运动的结果。","作为自由流动的结果，我们有一个。"]}],[{"start":901.03,"end":904.375,"text":"We now have to decide if we want one going forward. ","translations":["我们现在必须决定是否要继续推进。","我们现在必须决定我们是否想要一个未来的产业。"]}],[{"start":911.67,"end":914.1,"text":"The long running row over Northern Ireland, ","translations":["围绕北爱尔兰的长期争端——在爱尔兰海划定边界，以避免南北边界回到爱尔兰岛——毒害了欧盟与英国的关系。","在北爱尔兰问题上的长期争论，在爱尔兰海建立边界以避免爱尔兰岛上的南北边界回归，毒害了欧盟和英国的关系。"]},{"start":914.1,"end":915.66,"text":"creating a border in the Irish Sea "},{"start":915.66,"end":918.21,"text":"to avoid the north-south border returning "},{"start":918.21,"end":923.265,"text":"on the island of Ireland has poisoned EU-UK relations. "}],[{"start":923.265,"end":925.32,"text":"The EU is using us as a negotiating chip ","translations":["欧盟在拿我们当谈判筹码，说英国不能加入地平线科学研究项目，该项目价值950亿欧元，对英国科学家和英国大学非常重要。","欧盟利用我们作为谈判的筹码，说英国不能加入地平线科学研究项目，该项目价值950亿欧元，对英国科学家和英国大学极为重要。"]},{"start":925.32,"end":929.13,"text":"and saying that Britain can't join the Horizon Science "},{"start":929.13,"end":931.65,"text":"Research Project, which is worth 95bn euros, "},{"start":931.65,"end":933.518,"text":"hugely important to British scientists "},{"start":933.518,"end":934.56,"text":"and British universities. "}],[{"start":934.56,"end":936.518,"text":"But it's blocked because the British government ","translations":["但由于英国政府试图单方面取消其在北爱尔兰的义务，该协议被阻止。","但它被阻止了，因为英国政府正试图单方面撕毁其在北爱尔兰的义务。"]},{"start":936.518,"end":940.29,"text":"is trying unilaterally to rip up its obligations in Northern "},{"start":940.29,"end":940.92,"text":"Ireland. "}],[{"start":940.92,"end":943.35,"text":"While we have that attitude still in place, ","translations":["虽然我们的这种态度仍然存在，但我认为很难看到我们的贸易关系得到改善。","当我们仍然保持这种态度时，我认为很难看到我们的贸易关系得到改善。"]},{"start":943.35,"end":945.99,"text":"I think it's very difficult to see our trading "},{"start":945.99,"end":947.43,"text":"relationships improve. "}],[{"start":947.43,"end":950.04,"text":"The discussion about Northern Ireland and its future trading ","translations":["关于北爱尔兰及其未来贸易关系的讨论是困扰英国脱欧谈判的问题之一。","关于北爱尔兰及其未来贸易关系的讨论是困扰脱欧谈判的事情之一。"]},{"start":950.04,"end":952.123,"text":"relationship was one of the things that bedevilled "},{"start":952.123,"end":954.09,"text":"the negotiations about Brexit. "}],[{"start":954.09,"end":956.22,"text":"Everybody knew it was going to be a problem, ","translations":["每个人都知道这会是个问题，但我们还是做了这笔交易。","每个人都知道这将是一个问题，但我们还是做了这个交易。"]},{"start":956.22,"end":957.6,"text":"but we did the deal anyway. "}],[{"start":957.6,"end":958.62,"text":"We voted for Brexit. ","translations":["我们投票支持脱欧。","我们投票支持英国脱欧。"]}],[{"start":958.62,"end":961.35,"text":"We signed a so-called Northern Ireland Protocol, ","translations":["我们签署了所谓的“北爱尔兰议定书”，鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)和谈判《北爱尔兰议定书》的前英国脱欧大臣戴维·弗罗斯特(David Frost)勋爵(Lord David Frost)在过去几年里一直在抨击这份议定书。","我们签署了一个所谓的《北爱尔兰议定书》，鲍里斯-约翰逊和谈判《北爱尔兰议定书》的前英国脱欧部长大卫-弗罗斯特勋爵在过去几年里一直在抨击这个议定书。"]},{"start":961.35,"end":963.687,"text":"which Boris Johnson and Lord David Frost, "},{"start":963.687,"end":966.27,"text":"the former Brexit minister who negotiated the Northern Ireland "},{"start":966.27,"end":969.26,"text":"Protocol, spent the last several years trashing. "}],[{"start":969.26,"end":971.19,"text":"I seem to think it's become of some surprise ","translations":["我似乎认为，当欧洲法院同意北爱尔兰应该继续作为欧盟商品单一市场的一部分时，他们还将欧盟规则应用于北爱尔兰，这有点令人惊讶。","我似乎认为，当欧洲法院同意北爱尔兰应该继续作为欧盟货物单一市场的一部分时，欧洲法院将欧盟规则适用于北爱尔兰，这已经变得有些令人惊讶。"]},{"start":971.19,"end":972.63,"text":"that the European Court of Justice "},{"start":972.63,"end":976.05,"text":"applies EU rules to Northern Ireland when they have agreed "},{"start":976.05,"end":978.48,"text":"that Northern Ireland should remain as part of the EU "},{"start":978.48,"end":979.972,"text":"single market for goods. "}],[{"start":979.972,"end":981.93,"text":"The one thing I say about the Northern Protocol ","translations":["关于《北方议定书》我要说的一点是它赋予了北爱尔兰在欧洲不可思议的贸易地位。","我说的关于《北方议定书》的一件事是，它让北爱尔兰的在欧洲的贸易地位令人难以置信。"]},{"start":981.93,"end":984.768,"text":"is that it's given Northern Ireland's an incredible trading "},{"start":984.768,"end":985.56,"text":"position in Europe. "}],[{"start":985.56,"end":987.85,"text":"It's the only place in the whole of Europe, ","translations":["它是整个欧洲唯一一个一只脚在英国单一市场，另一只脚在欧盟单一市场的地方。","它是整个欧洲唯一的地方，一只脚在英国单一市场，另一只脚在欧盟单一市场。"]},{"start":987.85,"end":990.12,"text":"which has one foot in the UK single market "},{"start":990.12,"end":992.44,"text":"and another foot in the European Union single market. "}],[{"start":992.44,"end":994.26,"text":"It's an unwelcome fact for Brexiteers ","translations":["对于脱欧派来说，北爱尔兰已经成为一个经济成功的故事，而且正在蓬勃发展，这是一个不受欢迎的事实，当然是在外来投资方面。","对英国脱欧派来说，北爱尔兰已经成为一个经济成功的故事，而且正在蓬勃发展，当然是在外来投资方面。"]},{"start":994.26,"end":997.65,"text":"that Northern Ireland has become an economic success story "},{"start":997.65,"end":999.953,"text":"and booming, certainly in terms of inward investment. "}],[{"start":999.953,"end":1001.37,"text":"One of the reasons it's doing well ","translations":["它表现良好的原因之一是它在欧洲单一商品市场占有一席之地。","它做得很好的原因之一是，它在欧洲货物单一市场上有一席之地。"]},{"start":1001.37,"end":1003.98,"text":"is because it has a place in the European single market "},{"start":1003.98,"end":1004.55,"text":"for goods. "}],[{"start":1004.55,"end":1006.883,"text":"It's exactly the same trading position with the European ","translations":["这和几年前整个英国与欧盟的贸易地位完全一样。","它与欧盟的贸易地位与整个英国在几年前的贸易地位完全相同。"]},{"start":1006.883,"end":1008.39,"text":"Union that the whole of the UK had "},{"start":1008.39,"end":1009.65,"text":"until a couple of years ago. "}],[{"start":1013.15,"end":1015.88,"text":"There is a political conspiracy of silence around Brexit ","translations":["围绕脱欧和脱欧影响，存在着一种政治阴谋。","围绕着英国脱欧和英国脱欧的影响，存在着一种政治上的沉默阴谋。"]},{"start":1015.88,"end":1017.44,"text":"and the effects of Brexit. "}],[{"start":1017.44,"end":1021.04,"text":"It spans the government, it spans the Labour Party ","translations":["它跨越了政府，尤其是工党。","它跨越了政府，特别是跨越了工党。"]},{"start":1021.04,"end":1021.985,"text":"in particular. "}],[{"start":1021.985,"end":1025.18,"text":"It's very hard to separate out the effects of Covid ","translations":["很难区分新冠病毒的影响和英国脱欧的影响。","很难把Covid的影响和英国脱欧的影响分开。"]},{"start":1025.18,"end":1026.74,"text":"and the effects of Brexit. "}],[{"start":1026.74,"end":1028.22,"text":"The governor of the Bank of England ","translations":["英格兰银行行长不想谈论这件事。","英格兰银行行长不愿意谈论这个问题。"]},{"start":1028.22,"end":1029.47,"text":"doesn't want to talk about it. "}],[{"start":1029.47,"end":1032.59,"text":"It's become a kind of taboo around this whole subject. ","translations":["这已经成为整个话题的一种禁忌。","这已经成为围绕这整个主题的一种禁忌。"]}],[{"start":1032.59,"end":1034.15,"text":"We absolutely need an honest debate ","translations":["我们绝对需要就英国退欧的经济影响展开一场诚实的辩论。","我们绝对需要对英国脱欧的经济影响进行一次诚实的辩论。"]},{"start":1034.15,"end":1036.43,"text":"about the economic effects of Brexit. "}],[{"start":1036.43,"end":1039.91,"text":"Once you had a government, of whichever party willing to look ","translations":["一旦你有了一个政府，无论哪个党派的政府愿意正视事实，那么他们可能会开始说，看起来英国脱欧伤害了我们。","一旦你有一个政府，无论哪个党派都愿意看事实，那么他们就可以开始说，看起来英国脱欧已经伤害了我们。"]},{"start":1039.91,"end":1042.069,"text":"at the facts, then they could start "},{"start":1042.069,"end":1045.01,"text":"saying it looks as if Brexit has hurt us. "}],[{"start":1045.01,"end":1046.42,"text":"It's making you poorer. ","translations":["它让你变得更穷。","它使你更穷。"]}],[{"start":1046.42,"end":1048.76,"text":"This is what our evidence suggests. ","translations":["这就是我们的证据所表明的。","这就是我们的证据所表明的。"]}],[{"start":1048.76,"end":1050.71,"text":"The evidence will say that, by the way. ","translations":["顺便说一下，证据会证明这一点。","顺便说一下，证据会这么说。"]}],[{"start":1050.71,"end":1052.66,"text":"And then once you say that to the public ","translations":["一旦你对公众这么说并不断重复，你就可以开始辩论了。","然后一旦你对公众这样说，并不断重复，你就可以开始展开辩论了。"]},{"start":1052.66,"end":1055.465,"text":"and keep repeating it, you can start opening the debate. "}],[{"start":1055.465,"end":1057.85,"text":"Politically, the truth is neither party ","translations":["政治上的事实是，两党都无法在脱欧问题上诚实。","在政治上，事实是两党都不能对英国脱欧诚实。"]},{"start":1057.85,"end":1059.74,"text":"can be honest about Brexit. "}],[{"start":1059.74,"end":1062.14,"text":"The Tory Party doesn't want to be honest ","translations":["保守党不想诚实地承认，英国脱欧带来的实际选择是在成为规则接受者、在像挪威那样被臣服和自残之间做出选择，自残是指将自己与最近和最大的市场隔离而造成的所有经济损失。","保守党不想诚实地指出，英国脱欧带来的实际选择是在成为一个规则制定者之间，在像挪威那样的征服和自我伤害之间，也就是将自己与最近和最大的市场隔离开来所带来的所有经济损失。"]},{"start":1062.14,"end":1064.51,"text":"that the actual choice that Brexit presents "},{"start":1064.51,"end":1067.27,"text":"is between being a rule-taker, between subjugation, "},{"start":1067.27,"end":1069.73,"text":"like Norway, and self-harm, which "},{"start":1069.73,"end":1072.91,"text":"is all the economic damage that comes from walling yourself off "},{"start":1072.91,"end":1075.49,"text":"from your nearest and biggest market. "}],[{"start":1075.49,"end":1078.04,"text":"And the Labour Party doesn't want to talk about Brexit ","translations":["工党不想谈论脱欧，因为这会提醒选民他们为什么投票给保守党。","而工党不想谈论英国脱欧，因为这让选民想起了他们投票给保守党的原因。"]},{"start":1078.04,"end":1082.18,"text":"because it reminds voters why they voted Tory. "}],[{"start":1082.18,"end":1084.7,"text":"The Labour Party, as the Tory's frame it, ","translations":["作为保守党的框架，工党试图阻止英国脱欧。","工党，正如保守党人所诬陷的那样，试图阻止英国脱欧。"]},{"start":1084.7,"end":1086.575,"text":"tried to block Brexit. "}],[{"start":1086.575,"end":1088.6,"text":"This is still a live rail in British politics. ","translations":["这仍然是英国政坛的一条活跃轨道。","这仍然是英国政治中的一条活铁。"]}],[{"start":1088.6,"end":1091.21,"text":"People don't want to go anywhere near Brexit. ","translations":["人们不想接近英国脱欧。","人们不愿意接近英国脱欧的任何地方。"]}],[{"start":1091.21,"end":1092.62,"text":"It's divided the country. ","translations":["它分裂了整个国家。","它分裂了整个国家。"]}],[{"start":1092.62,"end":1093.85,"text":"It's divided communities. ","translations":["这是分裂的社区。","它分裂了社区。"]}],[{"start":1093.85,"end":1094.96,"text":"It's divided families. ","translations":["这是分裂的家庭。","它分裂了家庭。"]}],[{"start":1094.96,"end":1096.88,"text":"But in a way, that shields us from a debate, ","translations":["但在某种程度上，这让我们免于展开一场辩论，而我们应该展开一场辩论，讨论我们如何才能让英国脱欧在不扭曲经济的情况下正常运转。","但在某种程度上，这使我们避免了一场我们应该进行的辩论，即我们如何能够使英国脱欧以一种不扭曲经济的方式运作。"]},{"start":1096.88,"end":1100.153,"text":"which we should be having, about how we can make Brexit "},{"start":1100.153,"end":1102.445,"text":"functioning in a way which doesn't distort the economy. "}],[{"start":1104.41,"end":1106.12,"text":"People who speak out against Brexit ","translations":["公开反对英国脱欧的人通常被谴责为Re-moaners或Re-maniacs。","反对英国脱欧的人往往被斥责为“再失业者”或“再疯子”。"]},{"start":1106.12,"end":1110.62,"text":"are often decried as Re-moaners or Re-maniacs. "}],[{"start":1110.62,"end":1112.69,"text":"We're all being asked to accept something ","translations":["我们都被要求接受在2015年只是英国独立党官方政策的东西。","我们都被要求接受一些在2015年只是英国独立党的官方政策。"]},{"start":1112.69,"end":1116.02,"text":"which in 2015 was only the official policy of the UK "},{"start":1116.02,"end":1117.73,"text":"Independence Party. "}],[{"start":1117.73,"end":1120.4,"text":"Conservative Party, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, ","translations":["保守党、工党、自由民主党、绿党、工会、英国工业联合会、整个英国政治和公民社会都认为英国留在欧盟会更好。","保守党、工党、自由民主党、绿党、工会、CBI，整个英国政治和公民社会都认为英国在欧盟内会更好。"]},{"start":1120.4,"end":1125.17,"text":"Greens, trade unions, the CBI, the whole of British political "},{"start":1125.17,"end":1128.44,"text":"and civic society believe Britain was better off inside "},{"start":1128.44,"end":1129.37,"text":"the European Union. "}],[{"start":1129.37,"end":1132.76,"text":"And yet we are all being told we have to pay allegiance. ","translations":["但我们都被告知必须效忠。","然而，我们都被告知，我们必须支付效忠。"]}],[{"start":1132.76,"end":1135.73,"text":"This is a new national policy. ","translations":["这是一个新的国家政策。","这是一项新的国家政策。"]}],[{"start":1135.73,"end":1139.93,"text":"I expected there to be a one year down the road recap ","translations":["我原以为会有一年的时间来总结什么是错的，什么是对的，以及我们如何解决，但我们还没有看到这一点。","我以为一年后会有一个回顾什么是错的，什么是对的，以及我们如何解决它，但我们还没有看到。"]},{"start":1139.93,"end":1142.42,"text":"what went wrong, and what was right, and how we can fix it, "},{"start":1142.42,"end":1143.745,"text":"but we haven't seen that. "}],[{"start":1143.745,"end":1145.87,"text":"It would be really good to hear what other people's ","translations":["如果能听到别人的经历就太好了。","如果能听到其他人的经验是什么，那就太好了。"]},{"start":1145.87,"end":1146.8,"text":"experiences have been. "}],[{"start":1146.8,"end":1148.97,"text":"There might be some good news stories, I don't know. ","translations":["也许会有一些好消息，我不知道。","也许有一些好消息，我不知道。"]}],[{"start":1148.97,"end":1149.803,"text":"I haven't heard any. ","translations":["我没有听到任何消息。","我没有听到任何消息。"]}],[{"start":1149.803,"end":1152.26,"text":"I find it hard to think of anyone who said, ","translations":["我很难想到有人会说，这对我的生意来说太棒了。","我很难想象有谁会说，这对我的企业来说是很好的。"]},{"start":1152.26,"end":1155.25,"text":"this has been brilliant for my business. "}],[{"start":1155.25,"end":1157.83,"text":"Some businesses will win as a result of Brexit. ","translations":["一些企业将受益于英国脱欧。","一些企业将因英国脱欧而获胜。"]}],[{"start":1157.83,"end":1160.29,"text":"Businesses that can produce products ","translations":["可以为英国市场生产产品的企业现在从欧盟进口产品太复杂或太困难。","那些能够为英国市场生产产品的企业，现在从欧盟进口产品太复杂或太困难。"]},{"start":1160.29,"end":1163.26,"text":"for the UK market that are now too complicated or too "},{"start":1163.26,"end":1166.5,"text":"difficult to import from the EU. "}],[{"start":1166.5,"end":1170.505,"text":"That doesn't necessarily mean that the UK economy is winning. ","translations":["这并不一定意味着英国经济是赢家。","这不一定意味着英国经济会赢。"]}],[{"start":1170.505,"end":1172.98,"text":"EU-based companies have gained some of our contracts. ","translations":["总部位于欧盟的公司获得了我们的一些合同。","欧盟的公司获得了我们的一些合同。"]}],[{"start":1172.98,"end":1175.38,"text":"The EU freight companies that are gaining our freight ","translations":["欧盟的货运公司正在获得我们的货运业务，这已经不在英国了，他们都做得很好。","获得我们货运业务的欧盟货运公司，那是不在英国的，他们都做得相当好。"]},{"start":1175.38,"end":1177.052,"text":"business, that isn't in the UK anymore, "},{"start":1177.052,"end":1178.26,"text":"they're all doing quite well. "}],[{"start":1178.26,"end":1179.718,"text":"The people in Poland that we've had ","translations":["我们在波兰雇佣的仓库工人比在英国的工人做得还好。","我们不得不在仓库里雇佣的波兰人，而不是在英国的人，他们做得很好。"]},{"start":1179.718,"end":1181.958,"text":"to employ in warehouses rather than people in the UK, "},{"start":1181.958,"end":1183,"text":"they're doing quite well. "}],[{"start":1185.37,"end":1187.47,"text":"In theory, the City of London is a place ","translations":["从理论上讲，伦敦金融城(City of London)是英国能够制定自己规则的重要场所。","从理论上讲，伦敦市是一个英国能够制定自己的规则的地方，应该是很重要的。"]},{"start":1187.47,"end":1189.78,"text":"where the UK being able to make its own rules "},{"start":1189.78,"end":1190.89,"text":"should be important. "}],[{"start":1190.89,"end":1193.65,"text":"This is our sector that we're the best at, ","translations":["这是我们最擅长的领域，也是我们最了解的领域。","这是我们最擅长的部门，我们最了解的部门。"]},{"start":1193.65,"end":1195.36,"text":"that we know the most about. "}],[{"start":1195.36,"end":1197.4,"text":"We were responsible for a lot of rule-making ","translations":["当我们还在欧盟的时候，我们负责制定很多规则。","我们在欧盟内部时，负责了很多规则的制定。"]},{"start":1197.4,"end":1199.14,"text":"while we were within the EU. "}],[{"start":1199.14,"end":1202.41,"text":"To date, we haven't seen the results of that. ","translations":["到目前为止，我们还没有看到结果。","到目前为止，我们还没有看到这样做的结果。"]}],[{"start":1202.41,"end":1204.93,"text":"The predictions of doom for the City of London ","translations":["对伦敦金融城的末日预言总是言过其实。","对伦敦市的厄运的预测总是过头了。"]},{"start":1204.93,"end":1206.85,"text":"were always overdone. "}],[{"start":1206.85,"end":1210.3,"text":"Big institutions, in particular, spent time actually ","translations":["特别是大型机构，实际上在英国脱欧过程中很早就花了时间对其业务进行验证，以便无论结果如何，它们都能合法运营。","特别是大机构，在这个过程中，实际上很早就花了时间来证明他们的业务，以便无论结果如何，他们都可以合法地运作。"]},{"start":1210.3,"end":1213.09,"text":"quite early on in the process Brexit proofing "},{"start":1213.09,"end":1215.64,"text":"their operations so that they could operate legally "},{"start":1215.64,"end":1217.29,"text":"whatever the outcome was. "}],[{"start":1217.29,"end":1219.21,"text":"What we've seen since then I think ","translations":["我认为，从那以后我们看到的是一个缓慢的过程，企业和人员被转移到其他更有意义的地方。","从那时起，我认为我们看到的是一个缓慢的滴漏，业务和人员被迁移到其他地方，在那里他们更有意义。"]},{"start":1219.21,"end":1223.98,"text":"is a slow drip where business and people get relocated "},{"start":1223.98,"end":1227.61,"text":"to other places where it makes more sense for them to be. "}],[{"start":1227.61,"end":1230.94,"text":"The City was the natural place to do financial business ","translations":["伦敦金融城是在欧洲开展金融业务的天然场所，而英国脱欧给这一点打上了一个问号。","伦敦市是在欧洲开展金融业务的自然场所，而英国脱欧给这一点带来了一个问号。"]},{"start":1230.94,"end":1234.51,"text":"in Europe and Brexit introduced a question mark into that. "}],[{"start":1234.51,"end":1236.01,"text":"We weren't given enough information. ","translations":["我们没有得到足够的信息。","我们没有得到足够的信息。"]}],[{"start":1236.01,"end":1239.75,"text":"We weren't told what Brexit would actually look like. ","translations":["我们不知道脱欧到底是什么样子。","我们没有被告知英国脱欧到底会是什么样子。"]}],[{"start":1239.75,"end":1241.868,"text":"The losers will be some of the younger people ","translations":["输家将是一些投票反对英国退欧的年轻人。","输家将是一些投票反对英国脱欧的年轻人。"]},{"start":1241.868,"end":1242.91,"text":"who voted against Brexit. "}],[{"start":1242.91,"end":1245.642,"text":"If you look at the age profile of people who voted for leave, ","translations":["如果你看看那些投票支持脱欧的人的年龄分布，就会发现投票的是年龄较大的人。","如果你看一下投票支持脱欧的人的年龄特征，在人口中的老年人中存在着投票。"]},{"start":1245.642,"end":1248.1,"text":"there's a vote amongst the older members of the population. "}],[{"start":1251.55,"end":1254.88,"text":"The younger generation will start to discuss this topic. ","translations":["年轻一代将开始讨论这个话题。","年轻一代将开始讨论这个话题。"]}],[{"start":1254.88,"end":1256.35,"text":"They can't travel easily anymore. ","translations":["他们不能再轻易旅行了。","他们不能再轻易旅行了。"]}],[{"start":1256.35,"end":1258.78,"text":"They need a nomad visa if they want to work in Europe. ","translations":["如果他们想在欧洲工作，他们需要一个游民签证。","如果他们想在欧洲工作，他们需要一个游牧民签证。"]}],[{"start":1258.78,"end":1261,"text":"They can no longer invest in Europe easily. ","translations":["他们不再能轻易在欧洲投资。","他们不能再轻易在欧洲投资了。"]}],[{"start":1261,"end":1264.81,"text":"And with the geopolitical situation on a knife-edge, ","translations":["而且，在地缘政治形势一触即发的情况下，成为一个更大集团的一员会很好。","而在地缘政治局势如刀割一般的情况下，如果能成为一个更大的团体的一部分，那就更好了。"]},{"start":1264.81,"end":1267.54,"text":"it would be nice to be a part of a bigger group. "}],[{"start":1267.54,"end":1271.102,"text":"And I feel sorry that we aren't for the next generation. ","translations":["我很遗憾我们不属于下一代。","而且我觉得很遗憾，我们不是为了下一代。"]}],[{"start":1271.102,"end":1273.415,"text":"Don't watch people who are not rich Remainers. ","translations":["不要看那些不富裕的留欧派。","不要看那些不是有钱的留欧派的人。"]}],[{"start":1273.415,"end":1275.43,"text":"Will Britain leave the EU on time? ","translations":["英国会如期脱欧吗？","英国会按时离开欧盟吗？"]}],[{"start":1275.43,"end":1276.12,"text":"Sure. ","translations":["确定。","当然。"]}],[{"start":1276.12,"end":1277.62,"text":"You certainly hear conservatives who ","translations":["你肯定听到过保守派人士说，如果你不能在下次大选前证明脱欧的好处，你将陷入严重的麻烦。","你当然会听到保守派人士说，如果你不能在下次选举前证明英国脱欧的好处，你就会有大麻烦。"]},{"start":1277.62,"end":1279.39,"text":"say that if you can't demonstrate "},{"start":1279.39,"end":1281.31,"text":"the benefits of Brexit by the next election, "},{"start":1281.31,"end":1283.8,"text":"you're going to be in serious trouble. "}],[{"start":1283.8,"end":1287.76,"text":"And so you have the creation of jobs like Brexit Opportunities ","translations":["所以你创造了像脱欧机会大臣这样的工作机会。","于是你就有了像脱欧机会部长这样的工作创造。"]},{"start":1287.76,"end":1288.525,"text":"Minister. "}],[{"start":1288.525,"end":1291.3,"text":"Leaving the European Union is the most fantastic opportunity ","translations":["离开欧盟对英国来说是最美妙的机会。","脱离欧盟是英国最美妙的机会。"]},{"start":1291.3,"end":1292.26,"text":"for the United Kingdom. "}],[{"start":1292.26,"end":1294.635,"text":"The benefits of Brexit are always just around the corner. ","translations":["英国退欧的好处总是近在眼前。","英国脱欧的好处总是指日可待的。"]}],[{"start":1294.635,"end":1296.73,"text":"If this happened six years ago, by now, ","translations":["如果这种事发生在六年前，到现在为止，考虑到这是一个支持退欧的政府，政府中的某个人应该已经认识到好处是什么。","如果这发生在六年前，到现在，政府中有人，鉴于这是一个脱欧派的政府，应该已经确定了什么是好处。"]},{"start":1296.73,"end":1298.313,"text":"somebody in government, given the fact "},{"start":1298.313,"end":1300.563,"text":"this is a Brexiteer government, should have identified "},{"start":1300.563,"end":1301.62,"text":"what the benefits are. "}],[{"start":1301.62,"end":1306.36,"text":"The Brexiteers haven't really formulated a cogent case ","translations":["脱欧派还没有真正提出一个令人信服的理由，来说明为什么把英国与其家门口最大的市场隔离开来会带来更好的经济。","英国脱欧派并没有真正制定一个有说服力的案例，说明为什么将英国与它家门口的最大市场隔开会带来更好的经济。"]},{"start":1306.36,"end":1311.58,"text":"as to why walling the UK off from its largest "},{"start":1311.58,"end":1316.23,"text":"market on its doorstep will lead to a better economy. "}],[{"start":1316.23,"end":1319.14,"text":"When the government unleashed its Brexit opportunities ","translations":["政府发布脱欧机会文件时，排名第一的是什么？","当政府公布其“脱欧”机会文件时，最重要的项目是什么？"]},{"start":1319.14,"end":1320.952,"text":"document, what was the number one item? "}],[{"start":1320.952,"end":1322.41,"text":"That you were going to have a crown ","translations":["你会在英国酒吧的品脱壶上盖上皇冠印章。","就是你将在英国酒吧的品脱壶上重新盖上皇冠印章。"]},{"start":1322.41,"end":1326.175,"text":"stamp back on your pint pot in the English pub. "}],[{"start":1326.175,"end":1328.405,"text":"The Vote Leave side presented a very optimistic view ","translations":["支持脱欧的一方对脱欧后的英国经济前景提出了非常乐观的看法，包括一系列大规模的放松管制，英国在世界各地开展海盗活动，在世界各地达成贸易协议。","投票脱欧的一方对英国经济在脱欧后的面貌提出了非常乐观的看法，包括一系列大规模的放松管制，英国在世界各地进行冒险，在世界各地达成贸易协议。"]},{"start":1328.405,"end":1330.78,"text":"of what the British economy would look like after Brexit, "},{"start":1330.78,"end":1334.74,"text":"including a massive series of deregulation, Britain "},{"start":1334.74,"end":1337.38,"text":"buccaneering around the world, striking trade deals "},{"start":1337.38,"end":1338.135,"text":"around the world. "}],[{"start":1338.135,"end":1339.51,"text":"There have been some trade deals, ","translations":["有一些贸易协议，但主要是与英国通过欧盟已经有贸易协议的国家。","已经有一些贸易协议，但它们主要是与英国已经通过欧盟达成贸易协议的国家。"]},{"start":1339.51,"end":1341.85,"text":"but they've mainly been with countries that Britain already "},{"start":1341.85,"end":1343.98,"text":"had a trade deal with through the European Union. "}],[{"start":1343.98,"end":1346.785,"text":"Australia really is the only one exception to that. ","translations":["澳大利亚是唯一的例外。","澳大利亚确实是唯一的一个例外。"]}],[{"start":1346.785,"end":1349.71,"text":"Signing a free trade agreement with New Zealand or Australia ","translations":["与新西兰或澳大利亚签署自由贸易协定会对英国经济产生起伏，可能会产生非常非常微小的积极影响。","与新西兰或澳大利亚签署自由贸易协定对英国经济有起伏，可能是非常、非常小的积极作用。"]},{"start":1349.71,"end":1352.08,"text":"has ups and downs of the UK economy, "},{"start":1352.08,"end":1355.05,"text":"and is probably very, very marginally positive. "}],[{"start":1355.05,"end":1358.2,"text":"But it's nothing like losing a free trade agreement ","translations":["但这与失去自由贸易协定、失去与英吉利海峡对岸仅20英里之遥的最大贸易伙伴之间的无摩擦贸易完全不同。","但这与失去自由贸易协定，失去与海峡对岸仅20英里的最大贸易伙伴的无摩擦贸易完全不同。"]},{"start":1358.2,"end":1360.87,"text":"and losing the frictionless trade you had with your biggest "},{"start":1360.87,"end":1364.41,"text":"trading partner that's only 20 miles away across the channel. "}],[{"start":1364.41,"end":1366.87,"text":"We lose 4 per cent of our GDP by Brexit. ","translations":["英国退欧将使我们的GDP损失4%。","我们因英国脱欧而失去4%的国内生产总值。"]}],[{"start":1366.87,"end":1371.31,"text":"We gain 0.08 per cent by the government's own estimate ","translations":["根据政府自己的估计，通过与澳大利亚的贸易协议，我们获得了0.08%的收益。","根据政府自己的估计，我们通过与澳大利亚的贸易协议获得了0.08%。"]},{"start":1371.31,"end":1373.305,"text":"through this trade deal with Australia. "}],[{"start":1373.305,"end":1376.29,"text":"All the attempts to lay out exactly what a Brexit ","translations":["到目前为止，所有关于英国退欧红利到底是什么样子的尝试都完全无法令人信服，这是在贸易协定方面、监管方面或放松监管方面。","到目前为止，所有试图说明英国脱欧红利到底是什么样子的尝试都是完全没有说服力的，这是在贸易协定方面，在监管方面，或者说在放松监管方面。"]},{"start":1376.29,"end":1380.01,"text":"dividend looks like have thus far been totally unconvincing "},{"start":1380.01,"end":1382.86,"text":"and that's on the trade agreement front, "},{"start":1382.86,"end":1385.59,"text":"on the regulatory front, or the deregulatory front. "}],[{"start":1385.59,"end":1388.92,"text":"The best case scenario is that a Brexit dividend ","translations":["最好的情况是，英国退欧红利是很多很多的小变化，这些变化加起来会产生一些有意义的东西。","最好的情况是，英国脱欧的红利是很多很多的小变化，这些小变化加起来就会有意义。"]},{"start":1388.92,"end":1390.84,"text":"is lots and lots of little changes "},{"start":1390.84,"end":1393.48,"text":"that in aggregate add up to something meaningful. "}],[{"start":1393.48,"end":1396.36,"text":"There's no sort of great idea that ","translations":["目前还没有什么好主意。","目前还没有任何一种伟大的想法出现。"]},{"start":1396.36,"end":1398.137,"text":"is out there at the moment. "}],[{"start":1398.137,"end":1400.32,"text":"When the Brexiters said, oh, Brexit ","translations":["当脱欧派说，哦，脱欧将释放英国的全球潜力时，这让我非常恼火，因为我们并没有坐在自己的荣誉上，轻松地向法国销售产品。","当英国脱欧者说，哦，英国脱欧将释放英国的全球潜力时，这让我非常恼火，因为我们并没有坐享其成，只是轻松地把产品卖到法国。"]},{"start":1400.32,"end":1402.3,"text":"will unleash Britain's global potential, "},{"start":1402.3,"end":1404.01,"text":"that made me very annoyed because we "},{"start":1404.01,"end":1406.5,"text":"weren't sitting on our laurels just easily "},{"start":1406.5,"end":1407.55,"text":"selling into France. "}],[{"start":1407.55,"end":1408.9,"text":"Everyone was already doing that. ","translations":["每个人都已经这么做了。","每个人都已经在这样做了。"]}],[{"start":1408.9,"end":1411.57,"text":"We were already trading with the whole of the rest of the world. ","translations":["我们已经开始和世界上其他地方进行贸易。","我们已经在与世界其他国家进行贸易。"]}],[{"start":1411.57,"end":1413.88,"text":"Making things more difficult for us to sell into the EU ","translations":["增加我们向欧盟出口产品的难度并没有让任何事情变得更容易。","让我们更难向欧盟销售的事情并没有使任何事情变得更容易。"]},{"start":1413.88,"end":1415.185,"text":"did not make anything easier. "}],[{"start":1417.097,"end":1418.28,"text":"Boo. ","translations":["嘘。","嘭。"]}],[{"start":1418.28,"end":1420.115,"text":"Brexit. ","translations":["Brexit。","英国脱欧。"]}],[{"start":1420.115,"end":1424.87,"text":"We have heard Project Fear again and again, on and on it goes, ","translations":["我们一遍又一遍地听过“恐惧计划”，但到目前为止，“恐惧计划”的所有方面都是错误的。","我们一次又一次地听到“恐惧计划”，不断地听到，但到目前为止，“恐惧计划”的所有方面都是错误的。"]},{"start":1424.87,"end":1427.39,"text":"but that all the aspects of Project Fear "},{"start":1427.39,"end":1429.47,"text":"so far have been wrong. "}],[{"start":1429.47,"end":1433.03,"text":"We were promised a punishment budget, that never happened. ","translations":["他们答应给我们惩罚预算，但从来没有。","我们被承诺会有惩罚预算，但这从未发生。"]}],[{"start":1433.03,"end":1436.15,"text":"We were promised an increase of unemployment by 800,000 ","translations":["我们被承诺通过投票脱欧将增加80万失业人口，但这并没有发生。","有人向我们承诺，投票离开会使失业人数增加80万，但这并没有发生。"]},{"start":1436.15,"end":1438.977,"text":"by voting to leave, that did not happen. "}],[{"start":1438.977,"end":1440.59,"text":"Remainers did themselves no service ","translations":["留欧派声称，脱欧公投后，英国经济将立即陷入衰退，数百万人将失业，这对他们自己没有任何帮助。","留欧派声称，在英国脱欧投票后，英国的经济将立即陷入衰退，数百万人将失业，这对他们自己也没有好处。"]},{"start":1440.59,"end":1443.228,"text":"by claiming that immediately after a Brexit vote "},{"start":1443.228,"end":1445.27,"text":"that Britain's economy would crash into recession "},{"start":1445.27,"end":1447.062,"text":"and millions of people would be unemployed. "}],[{"start":1447.062,"end":1448.812,"text":"I mean, that hasn't happened, and probably ","translations":["我的意思是，这还没有发生，可能永远也不会发生。","我的意思是，这并没有发生，而且可能永远不会发生。"]},{"start":1448.812,"end":1450.16,"text":"was never going to happen. "}],[{"start":1450.16,"end":1454.45,"text":"The Project Fear tag was very effective ","translations":["“恐惧计划”标签从脱欧运动起就非常有效，一直持续到今天。","恐惧计划的标签在脱欧运动中非常有效，并持续到今天。"]},{"start":1454.45,"end":1457.72,"text":"from the Leave campaign and lasts to this day. "}],[{"start":1457.72,"end":1461.23,"text":"I think the trouble is that Brexit is boring, and detailed, ","translations":["我认为问题在于英国脱欧很无聊、很详细、很不可靠，很难谈论贸易安排、关税联盟和政治竞选中的文书工作等不可靠的细节。","我认为问题在于，英国脱欧是枯燥的、详细的、古怪的，很难在政治运动中谈论那些围绕贸易安排、关税同盟和文书工作的古怪细节。"]},{"start":1461.23,"end":1465.16,"text":"and wonky, it was hard to talk about that wonky detail "},{"start":1465.16,"end":1468.52,"text":"around trading arrangements, and customs unions, "},{"start":1468.52,"end":1471.565,"text":"and paperwork in a political campaign. "}],[{"start":1475.83,"end":1478.53,"text":"Get Brexit Done, it was one of the most effective election ","translations":["“完成脱欧”，这是你见过的最有效的竞选口号之一。","搞定英国脱欧，这是你见过的最有效的选举口号之一。"]},{"start":1478.53,"end":1479.85,"text":"slogans you've seen. "}],[{"start":1479.85,"end":1484.2,"text":"We didn't even start to dig into those questions ","translations":["直到投票结束，我们才开始深入研究这些问题。","直到投票结束后，我们甚至没有开始挖掘这些问题。"]},{"start":1484.2,"end":1485.85,"text":"until after the vote was finished. "}],[{"start":1488.24,"end":1491.12,"text":"The type of Brexit we decided to pursue ","translations":["我们决定追求的脱欧在经济上是最有害的。","我们决定追求的英国脱欧类型在经济上是最有害的。"]},{"start":1491.12,"end":1493.88,"text":"was economically the most harmful. "}],[{"start":1493.88,"end":1498.86,"text":"There was always a spectrum of economic impact versus ability ","translations":["经济影响与我们在监管等问题上做出自己选择的能力之间总是存在一个范围。","在经济影响与围绕监管等问题做出自己选择的能力之间，总是存在着一个光谱。"]},{"start":1498.86,"end":1502.64,"text":"to make our own choices around things like regulation. "}],[{"start":1502.64,"end":1505.85,"text":"The European Union is not a superpower in the way ","translations":["欧盟不像美国那样是一个超级大国，但它是一个监管和贸易超级大国。","欧盟不是像美国那样的超级大国，但它是一个监管和贸易超级大国。"]},{"start":1505.85,"end":1507.6,"text":"that the United States is a superpower, "},{"start":1507.6,"end":1510.83,"text":"but it is a regulatory and trading superpower. "}],[{"start":1510.83,"end":1513.26,"text":"Collectively, it's the world's largest market ","translations":["总的来说，它是世界上最大的市场，它协调了所有的规则，让每个人都能更自由地进行贸易。","总的来说，它是世界上最大的市场，它协调了所有的规则，让每个人都能更自由地进行贸易。"]},{"start":1513.26,"end":1517.91,"text":"and it harmonised all of its rules to allow everybody "},{"start":1517.91,"end":1519.02,"text":"to trade more freely. "}],[{"start":1519.02,"end":1521.87,"text":"And it forced other countries and trading ","translations":["它还迫使其他国家和贸易集团在许多方面遵守欧盟的规则。","而且它迫使其他国家和贸易集团在许多方面遵循欧盟的规则。"]},{"start":1521.87,"end":1524.39,"text":"blocs to follow EU rules in many ways. "}],[{"start":1524.39,"end":1527.33,"text":"We can no longer blame European rule-makers ","translations":["我们不能再因为我们不喜欢的决定和政策，或者我们自己的经济中不喜欢的结果而指责欧洲的规则制定者。","我们不能再把我们不喜欢的决定和政策或我们不喜欢的结果归咎于欧洲的规则制定者，因为我们在自己的经济中不喜欢。"]},{"start":1527.33,"end":1531.02,"text":"for decisions and policies that we don't like or outcomes "},{"start":1531.02,"end":1532.91,"text":"that we don't like in our own economy. "}],[{"start":1532.91,"end":1535.19,"text":"With sovereignty comes a degree of ownership. ","translations":["主权带来了一定程度的所有权。","有了主权就有了一定程度的所有权。"]}],[{"start":1537.875,"end":1540.23,"text":"I think we can conclude, one, that Brexit was ","translations":["我认为我们可以得出结论，第一，英国脱欧是一种经济上的自我伤害行为。","我认为我们可以得出这样的结论：第一，英国脱欧是一种经济上的自我伤害行为。"]},{"start":1540.23,"end":1542.06,"text":"an act of economic self-harm. "}],[{"start":1542.06,"end":1545.57,"text":"Two, that the losers will be the nation as a whole, ","translations":["第二，输家将是整个国家，但也包括一些最贫穷的人，因为最终，我们作为一个国家会更穷。","第二，输家将是整个国家，但也是一些最贫穷的人，因为最终，我们作为一个国家会更穷。"]},{"start":1545.57,"end":1547.4,"text":"but also some of the poorest people, "},{"start":1547.4,"end":1550.04,"text":"because ultimately, we are poorer as a nation. "}],[{"start":1550.04,"end":1552.17,"text":"That hurts more vulnerable people more. ","translations":["这对弱势群体的伤害更大。","这对更脆弱的人伤害更大。"]}],[{"start":1552.17,"end":1554.96,"text":"Third, I think something from economics we can say ","translations":["第三，我认为我们可以从经济学中得出的结论是，我们不能就非常简单的经济口号进行公投，试图将经济学武器化是危险的。","第三，我认为从经济学上我们可以说的是，我们不能在非常简单的经济口号上进行公投，试图将经济学武器化是危险的。"]},{"start":1554.96,"end":1558.35,"text":"is that we can't run referendums on very "},{"start":1558.35,"end":1560.66,"text":"simple economic slogans, and it's "},{"start":1560.66,"end":1564.875,"text":"dangerous to try and weaponise economics. "}],[{"start":1564.875,"end":1566.42,"text":"Brexit is a slow puncture. ","translations":["英国退欧是一个缓慢的穿刺。","英国脱欧是一个缓慢的穿刺。"]}],[{"start":1566.42,"end":1567.53,"text":"It's not a car crash. ","translations":["这不是车祸。","它不是一场车祸。"]}],[{"start":1567.53,"end":1570.29,"text":"So that doesn't mean that Brexit creates an unemployment ","translations":["所以，这并不意味着脱欧会在英国造成失业危机，但它可能意味着，随着时间的推移，英国工人会发现自己从事的工作效率更低，这使得经济规模比不脱欧的情况下更小。","因此，这并不意味着英国脱欧会造成失业危机，但它可能意味着，随着时间的推移，英国工人发现自己从事的是生产力较低的工作，这使得经济规模比原来要小。"]},{"start":1570.29,"end":1572.63,"text":"crisis in the UK, but it may mean "},{"start":1572.63,"end":1575.99,"text":"that over time, UK workers find themselves "},{"start":1575.99,"end":1578.06,"text":"in less productive jobs and that makes "},{"start":1578.06,"end":1580.97,"text":"the economy smaller than it otherwise would have been. "}],[{"start":1580.97,"end":1584.3,"text":"It makes wages lower than they otherwise would have been. ","translations":["这使得工资低于他们原本应有的水平。","这使得工资比他们本来的水平要低。"]}],[{"start":1584.3,"end":1587.93,"text":"The slow puncture analogy has been right from 2016, ","translations":["从2016年开始，“缓慢穿孔”的类比是正确的，但我认为“迷你”预算是第一个迹象，如果我们把事情做得太过分，你不仅会开始听到更多可听到的嘶嘶声，甚至可能会爆发。","缓慢穿刺的比喻从2016年就开始了，但我认为“小型”预算案是第一个迹象，如果我们把事情推得太远，你不仅会开始听到更多可听到的嘶嘶声，而且你甚至可能有一个井喷。"]},{"start":1587.93,"end":1591.14,"text":"but I think the \"mini\" Budget is that first sign "},{"start":1591.14,"end":1594.05,"text":"that if we push things too far, not only are you going "},{"start":1594.05,"end":1596.96,"text":"to begin to hear much more of an audible hiss, "},{"start":1596.96,"end":1598.925,"text":"but you might even have a blowout. "}],[{"start":1598.925,"end":1602.06,"text":"It's bordering on disastrous. ","translations":["这几乎是灾难性的。","这几乎是灾难性的。"]}],[{"start":1602.06,"end":1605.51,"text":"I don't think there's any real public awareness of this. ","translations":["我认为公众并没有真正意识到这一点。","我不认为公众对此有任何真正的认识。"]}],[{"start":1605.51,"end":1607.7,"text":"Even if we go and visit my mum for a weekend ","translations":["即使我们周末去看我妈妈，和她谈谈我们面临的困难，她也会说，哦，真的吗？","即使我们在周末去看望我的母亲，和她谈论我们面临的困难，她也会说，哦，真的？"]},{"start":1607.7,"end":1609.77,"text":"and talk to her about the difficulties we face, "},{"start":1609.77,"end":1611.06,"text":"she'll go, oh, really? "}],[{"start":1611.06,"end":1612.17,"text":"I thought we had a deal. ","translations":["我们不是说好了吗。","我以为我们有一个协议。"]}],[{"start":1612.17,"end":1614.48,"text":"Nothing's ever in the news about it. ","translations":["新闻里从来没有这方面的报道。","新闻中从来没有关于这个问题的报道。"]}],[{"start":1614.48,"end":1618.49,"text":"Nobody else seems to be voicing any concerns, apart from maybe ","translations":["似乎除了你在Twitter上，没有人表达任何担忧。","除了在Twitter上的你之外，似乎没有其他人表达任何担忧。"]},{"start":1618.49,"end":1619.115,"text":"you on Twitter. "}],[{"start":1622.49,"end":1624.62,"text":"Brexit wasn't all about the economy. ","translations":["英国退欧并不完全是经济问题。","英国脱欧并不全是经济问题。"]}],[{"start":1624.62,"end":1626.96,"text":"It was about stopping the free movement of people. ","translations":["而是要阻止人员的自由流动。","它是关于停止人员的自由流动。"]}],[{"start":1626.96,"end":1629.84,"text":"It was about repatriating a sense of agency ","translations":["它是关于将代理感带回英国经济。","它是关于将代理权的意识遣返到英国经济中。"]},{"start":1629.84,"end":1631.28,"text":"into the UK economy. "}],[{"start":1631.28,"end":1633.62,"text":"The trouble was the Brexiteers and those ","translations":["问题是脱欧派和那些推销脱欧的人不诚实地对待取舍和代价，从经济上讲，这些代价实际上超过了好处。","问题是，英国脱欧派和那些推销英国脱欧的人没有诚实地说明其中的权衡和成本，实际上，从经济上来说，这些成本超过了收益。"]},{"start":1633.62,"end":1637.01,"text":"who sold it were not honest about the trade-offs "},{"start":1637.01,"end":1640.97,"text":"and the costs of that, which actually, economically, "},{"start":1640.97,"end":1642.608,"text":"outweighed the benefits. "}],[{"start":1642.608,"end":1644.15,"text":"It is legitimate to have a discussion ","translations":["讨论国家主权和收回控制权是正当的。","讨论国家主权和夺回控制权是合法的。"]},{"start":1644.15,"end":1646.975,"text":"about national sovereignty and taking back control. "}],[{"start":1646.975,"end":1648.35,"text":"You could have had that argument, ","translations":["你可能会有这样的争论，但你必须接受这样做会带来一些经济影响。","你可以有这种说法，但你必须接受会有一些经济影响。"]},{"start":1648.35,"end":1649.812,"text":"but you have to accept that there "},{"start":1649.812,"end":1651.02,"text":"will be some economic impact. "}],[{"start":1651.02,"end":1654.08,"text":"The trouble was Boris Johnson famously ","translations":["问题是，鲍里斯•约翰逊采取了一种著名的蛋糕主义者方式，鱼与熊掌兼得。","麻烦的是，鲍里斯-约翰逊采取了著名的卡克主义方法，要吃你的蛋糕，还要吃它。"]},{"start":1654.08,"end":1656.93,"text":"adopted a cakist approach, to have your cake and eat it. "}],[{"start":1656.93,"end":1659.9,"text":"Cakism, or cherry-picking, as Michel Barnier used to call it, ","translations":["米歇尔·巴尼耶(Michel Barnier)曾称其为蛋糕主义(Cakism)或采樱桃主义(cherry-pick)，即你可以保留你想进入欧盟单一市场的所有权利，同时仍然可以自由实施你可能称之为海盗式的英国退欧。","Cakism，或者说是Michel Barnier过去常说的“偷梁换柱”，这种想法是，你可以保留你想要的所有进入欧盟单一市场的机会，并且仍然可以自由地进行你可能称之为“古怪的脱欧”。"]},{"start":1659.9,"end":1662.99,"text":"this idea that you could retain all the access you wanted "},{"start":1662.99,"end":1665.33,"text":"to the EU single market and still be "},{"start":1665.33,"end":1668.45,"text":"free to go off on what you might call your buccaneering Brexit. "}],[{"start":1668.45,"end":1672.98,"text":"It was that Cakism that was slowly but surely exploded ","translations":["正是这种“蛋糕主义”在与欧盟的谈判过程中缓慢但肯定地被打破了。","正是这种“卡克主义”在与欧盟谈判的过程中被缓慢但肯定地引爆了。"]},{"start":1672.98,"end":1675.792,"text":"by the process of negotiating with the EU. "}],[{"start":1675.792,"end":1678.02,"text":"And we're still paying the price of that, really, ","translations":["我们仍然在为此付出代价，真的，因为人们从来没有准备好接受或识别取舍，然后开始讨论你能做些什么。","我们仍在为此付出代价，真的，因为人们从未准备接受或确定权衡，然后开始讨论你能做些什么。"]},{"start":1678.02,"end":1680.78,"text":"because people have never been prepared to accept or identify "},{"start":1680.78,"end":1682.37,"text":"the trade-offs and then start talking "},{"start":1682.37,"end":1684.82,"text":"about what you can do about it. "}]],"dict":"{\"Boris Johnson and Lord David Frost\":[\"鲍里斯•约翰逊和大卫•弗罗斯特勋爵\",\"\"],\"Boris\":[\"鲍里斯\"],\"Johnson\":[\"约翰逊\"],\"I'm Dani Loughran\":[\"我是丹尼Loughran\",\"我是Dani Loughran\"],\"I'm\":[\"我\",\"我是\"],\"I'm Kiran Tawadey\":[\"我Kiran Tawadey\",\"我是Kiran Tawadey\"],\"Brexit Opportunities Minister\":[\"Brexit机会部长\",\"英国脱欧机会部长\"],\"Brexit\":[\"Brexit\",\"英国脱欧\"],\"Labour Party\":[\"工党\"],\"I'm Rob\":[\"我抢\",\"我是罗伯\"],\"I'm Vicky\":[\"我是维琪\",\"我是Vicky\"],\"It's\":[\"这是\",\"是\"],\"We're\":[\"我们\",\"我们是\"],\"Ukraine\":[\"乌克兰\",\"苺\"],\"We've\":[\"我们已经\",\"我们是\"],\"Brexit's\":[\"Brexit的\",\"英国脱欧的\"],\"UK's\":[\"英国的\"],\"Remainers\":[\"Remainers\",\"留任者\"],\"Britain\":[\"英国\"],\"Britain's\":[\"英国的\"],\"Ireland\":[\"爱尔兰\"],\"Poland\":[\"波兰\"],\"Covid\":[\"Covid\"],\"Brexiteers\":[\"Brexiteers\",\"英国脱欧派\"],\"Tory\":[\"托利党\",\"保守党\"],\"Brexiteer\":[\"Brexiteer\",\"英国脱欧派\"],\"Cakism\":[\"Cakism\",\"卡克主义\"],\"G7\":[\"七国集团(G7)\",\"G7\"],\"City of London\":[\"伦敦市\"],\"Frost\":[\"弗罗斯特勋爵\",\"\"]}"}