The world is not on the path to limit the increase in temperature to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Its movement towards an irreversible change in the global climate does not mean the world has failed to make progress, however. On the contrary, there has been much improvement. Yet it is not enough.
世界并没有走在能够将气温较工业化前的上升幅度控制在1.5度以内的道路上。然而，它朝着全球气候将出现不可逆变化的方向前进并不意味着世界无法取得任何进展。相反，情况已经大有改善。然而还不够。
The question to be addressed at the COP29 climate conference in Baku this month is how to change this unhappy trajectory.
本月在巴库举行的联合国第29届气候变化大会(COP29)将要解决的问题是，如何改变这种不如人意的轨迹？
“The last decade has seen the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix gradually come down from 82 per cent in 2013 to 80 per cent in 2023,” says the International Energy Agency in its World Energy Outlook 2024 report.
“过去10年，化石燃料在全球能源结构中的占比从2013年的82%逐步下降至2023年的80%，”国际能源署(IEA)在2024年度《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)报告中写道。
“Demand for energy has increased by 15 per cent over this period and 40 per cent of this growth has been met by clean energy.”
“同期全球能源需求增加15%，40%的增长来自清洁能源。”
In sum, demand for fossil fuels has continued to expand and its share in supply has barely fallen; we have been running fast to stand still. Will this change quickly enough in future? No.
总的来说，化石燃料需求还在继续增长，它在能源供应中的占比几乎没有下降；我们一直以来跑得太快，以至于现在无法站定。这种状况在将来会发生足够快的变化吗？不会。
Yes, we have already passed peak coal and are on track to pass peak oil and gas by 2030, according to the IEA. But, under current policies, in the agency’s “stated policies” scenario, known as Steps, fossil fuels would still generate more than half of all energy in 2050.
