On Monday, we will witness the ritual miracle of Britain’s peaceful transfer of power, from one Conservative leader to the next. The party’s genius is that it keeps reinventing itself and scrambling the country, so that each new Tory prime minister — now, presumably, Liz Truss — feels like a new regime.
周一，我们将见证英国例行发生的奇迹——权力的和平移交，从一位保守党领导人移交到另一位保守党领导人。保守党的天才之处在于，它不断重塑自己，让国家陷入混乱，以至于每一位保守党籍的新首相——想必这一次是利兹•特拉斯(Liz Truss)——都感觉像是一个新政权。
There’s more that’s familiar about this moment. As an ex-superpower, Britain swings between hubris and despair. There was war-induced hubris in 1914 and 1982 and despair in 1956 (the Suez Crisis), 1979 (winter of discontent) and the 2008 financial crisis. The vote for Brexit in 2016, uniquely, combined hubris with despair; some Leave voters thought the UK could do without Europe, while others were expressing their pain. Now a hubristic leader is taking charge just as Britain’s economy and public realm melt down. How will that play out?
这一刻还有更多我们熟悉的东西。作为一个前超级大国，英国在自大和绝望之间摇摆。1914年和1982年是战争引发的自大，1956年（苏伊士运河危机）、1979年（“不满的冬天”）和2008年金融危机中则是绝望。2016年英国进行退欧公投时比较独特，既有自大又有绝望；一些脱欧派认为英国没有欧洲也行，而其他人则表达了他们的痛苦。如今，就在英国经济和公共领域崩溃之际，一位自大的领导人将要上台。事态会怎么发展呢？
Even the British term “omnishambles” cannot capture the current despair. Energy bills will rise 80 per cent next month, real wages are lower than in 2007, foreign investment has evaporated since 2016, the trade deficit is the worst on record and the Bank of England predicts a recession lasting more than a year. Given southern Italian levels of productivity outside London and the UK’s self-exile from the world’s largest free-trade zone, Britain’s regions have no obvious long-term economic strategy beyond flogging national heritage to foreigners.
即使是英国造出的新词“omnishambles”（完全混乱）也无法表达当前的绝望。下个月，能源账单将上涨80%，而实际工资低于2007年，外国投资自2016年以来逐渐消失，贸易逆差处于有记录以来的最糟糕水平，英国央行(BoE)预计，经济衰退将持续一年以上。考虑到伦敦以外的生产率堪比意大利南部水平，英国又自己把自己从全球最大自由贸易区开除了出去，英国各地区除了向外国人兜售本国遗产外，没有明显的长期经济战略。