China already has the world’s number two economy. It will double in the next 15 years, reckons the country’s president Xi Jinping. Bold man. That envisages a near-$30tn economy at today’s prices and exchange rates, roughly half as big again as today’s United States.
中国已经是世界第二大经济体。中国国家主席习近平认为，未来15年期间，中国经济还将翻一番。这个目标很大胆。按照目前的价格和汇率，那将意味着一个近30万亿美元的经济体，大致是今天美国水平的1.5倍。
China’s economy is planned. It has made an art of hitting targets - sometimes with numbers that statisticians doubt. It has doubled five times since 1980 in real terms. Mr Xi’s grand vision implies annual growth below 5 per cent. Growth only dropped below the magical 8 per cent — the level perceived to ensure high employment and hence social stability — a handful of times in the three decades to 2011. There have been several bouts of double-digit expansion, lubricated by government spending, since the millennium.
中国对经济发展实施规划。它在达到目标方面炉火纯青，形成了一门艺术，有时出炉的数字会招致统计人员怀疑。自1980年以来，中国经济在扣除通胀因素后已经五次翻番。习近平的宏大愿景意味着不到5%的年增长率。在截至2011年的30年里，经济增长只有几次跌破神奇的8%水平（被认为是确保高就业率、由此带来社会稳定的必要水平）。自2000年以来，在政府支出的助推下，出现了几轮两位数扩张。