Bridgewater Associates did not become the world’s largest hedge fund by getting many big bets wrong. But the firm’s founder, Ray Dalio, is mistaken in arguing that now is the time to buy into China. Far from it. For two sets of reasons — one external, one made at home — Beijing is facing the sternest test yet of its economic development model.
桥水公司(Bridgewater Associates)成为世界上最大的对冲基金，靠的可不是进行许多错误的重大押注。但该公司的创始人雷•达里奥(Ray Dalio)错误地认为现在是投资中国的时候。现在远不是时候。北京的经济发展模式面临着迄今最为严峻的考验，有两个原因——一个是外部的，一个是内部的。
In a video posted online last week, Mr Dalio urged investors to look past the latest flare-up in trade tensions with the US and seize the long-term opportunities offered by a rising global power that is finally opening up its financial markets.
在上周在线发布的一个视频中，达里奥敦促投资者忽视中美贸易紧张局势的最新升级，抓住终于开放金融市场的崛起中全球大国提供的长期机遇。
But this is not any old tariff row that will eventually blow over. Rather, it signals the end of an era in which China benefited from ever-closer integration into the global economy. The rules of that engagement are now being rewritten, in technology as much as in trade, and will hamper China’s hitherto rapid rise up the value-added ladder.
但中美之间不是过去那种最终会烟消云散的关税争执。相反，中美贸易战标志着中国从日益紧密融入全球经济中受益的时代结束。融入全球经济的规则现在正在被重写，技术和贸易领域都是如此，这将阻碍中国迄今为止在附加值阶梯上的迅速向上攀爬。
Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping’s moves to strengthen the party-state’s grip over the economy is crowding out private business and damping the confidence of urban consumers. That in turn is slowing the economy’s much-needed transition towards household spending and homegrown innovation.
与此同时，中国国家主席习近平加强党国对经济控制的举措，正在将私营企业挤出，并削弱城市消费者的信心。这反过来又减缓了经济亟需的向依赖家庭消费支出和本土创新转变的进程。