土耳其

Leader_A wise autocrat knows what he does not control
FT社评:土耳其里拉发出的警告


土耳其里拉下跌表明埃尔多安的政策让金融市场日益失去信心。而不管埃尔多安喜欢与否,他都得仰仗金融市场的好评。

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s autocratic president, is painfully learning a lesson supposedly taught by King Canute, 11th century king of England. The latter, it was said, sat in front of the incoming tide, to teach his sycophantic courtiers that he did not rule the seas.

土耳其的专制总统雷杰普•塔伊普•埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)正吃到一个惨痛教训,这个教训据说是11世纪的克努特大帝(King Canute)训诫过人们的。传说克努特大帝当年坐在不断上涨的潮水前,就为了让那些谄媚的侍臣明白他掌管不了大海。

Mr Erdogan is learning, similarly, that the tides of global finance will not do what he tells them to do. A wise ruler has to change policies. The decision to raise interest rates was the right one. He might have to go further still.

同样,埃尔多安也学到了全球金融的潮水不会听从他的指挥。一个明智的统治者必须改变政策。加息的决定是正确的,不过他可能还得更进一步。

The financial tide has been flowing against many emerging economies, as the dollar has strengthened. But the Turkish lira has been swept furthest out to sea. The currency fell to almost TL5 to the dollar on Wednesday. That would have amounted to a depreciation of almost 20 per cent since the end of April. That would risk an upsurge in inflation, thereby threatening the relatively low inflation — by Turkey’s historical standards, at least — enjoyed by the country, under Mr Erdogan’s rule, since 2004. If the slide in the currency were unabated, the inflationary upsurge might bring back the bad old days of the pre-2001 era.

随着美元走强,金融的潮水一直在跟许多新兴经济体作对。但被潮水带离海岸最远的是土耳其里拉。周三,这种货币兑美元汇率跌至近5土耳其里拉兑1美元,相当于自4月底贬值了近20%。这可能导致通胀上升,从而危及该国自2004年以来在埃尔多安治下(至少按土耳其的历史标准)相对较低的通胀。如果土耳其里拉下滑势头不减,通胀的上升可能会让土耳其回到2001年以前的艰苦岁月。

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