Following its sixth consecutive downgrade of global economic performance, the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook again projects a recovery around the corner. The government shutdown aside, news from the US has been encouraging; despair on the eurozone is abating; and the Chinese slowdown has been orderly. Green shoots have appeared before, only to disappoint. Might this time be different?
在连续六次下调对全球经济表现的预测之后，国际货币基金组织(IMF)的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)又一次预计全球经济将在不久之后复苏。除了政府关门以外，来自美国的消息总体令人感到振奋；笼罩欧元区的绝望情绪正在减退；而中国的经济增速放缓也并未引发乱象。经济复苏的迹象以前也曾出现过，但只给人们带来了失望。这一次情况是否会有所不同呢？
World trade is a helpful lens through which to monitor global economic health. The collapse of 2008-09 was triggered by a financial earthquake but transmitted across the world by a precipitous fall in trade. Early in the crisis, industrial production fell at the same pace as at the start of the Great Depression in 1929-30 – but the trade collapse was unprecedented. Looking into the abyss, world leaders mustered a co-ordinated stimulus to limit the fall. Yet the rebound was powered by the Chinese appetite for imports that accelerated global trade in 2010.
考察国际贸易形势有助于监控全球经济的景气状况。2008-09年间的经济危机是由一场金融地震引发的，但通过国际贸易的急剧萎缩传导到了世界各地。在经济危机的初期，工业产出的下降速度与1929-30年大萧条(Great Depression)刚刚爆发时别无二致——但国际贸易的大幅萎缩则史无前例。面对深渊，世界各国领导人协作推出刺激方案，以控制国际贸易的下滑趋势。但中国对于进口商品的巨大需求才是促使国际贸易反弹的真正原因，并推动国际贸易在2010年加速增长。