卧底经济学家

HOW I LOST MY HEAD IN THE VOLCANIC ASH CLOUD
令人发疯的火山灰


FT专栏作家哈福德:冰岛火山爆发之际,我没能赶回家给妻子过生日,也没能在赫尔辛基买到英国《金融时报》,这让我开始思考一些可怕的情景。

Six weeks ago, marooned in Helsinki by a rogue Icelandic volcano, I noticed a strong divergence of opinion between those of my colleagues in a similar situation and those with no travel plans. For me and my fellow FT columnist Gideon Rachman, it was the end of the world – even if Gideon, who wasn't rushing back for his wife's birthday, accepted it with a sangfroid that I failed to muster. For those safely in the UK, the ash cloud was a minor distraction from important matters such as the Euro crisis and the British election.

6周前,当肆虐的冰岛火山把我困在赫尔辛基时,我注意到与我有类似遭遇的同事和那些没有旅行计划的同事之间存在严重的意见分歧。对于我和同为英国《金融时报》专栏作家的吉迪恩•拉赫曼 (Gideon Rachman)而言,这就是世界末日——不过,不用赶回家为妻子庆祝生日的吉迪恩显得沉着冷静,而我却无法做到这点。对于那些安全地待在英国的同事而言,火山灰云不过是关注欧元危机和英国大选等重要事件之余的一点谈资而已。

My agitation wasn't mere self-centredness (it's important because I'm important) but an example of what psychologists and behavioural economists call the “availability heuristic” – that something must be important because it's easy for me to call it to mind.

我的不安不仅仅是以自我为中心(这很重要,因为我很重要),而是心理学家和行为经济学家所谓的“可利用性法则”(availability heuristic)的一个例证。该法则认为,如果某件事我很容易就能想起来,那么它一定很重要。

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