BAD START FOR NEW BRETTON WOODS
二十国集团应多办实事


将中印等大型新兴市场纳入全球决策过程,原则上是一个很好的想法。但要想使其有效,就需要可信度,而可信度是需要通过“办实事”而逐渐建立起来的。

The G20 has been in existence for years but achieved little. The November meeting sketched out a grand plan to co-operate in supporting global growth and combating the financial crisis – recognising the falsity of vague hopes that big parts of the world economy would be “decoupled” from the slowdown.

二十国集团已经存在多年,但成果寥寥无几。11月份的峰会草拟了一份协作支持全球经济增长、对抗金融危机的宏伟计划,承认某些朦胧的希望是错误的,即世界经济的相当大部分将与衰退“脱钩”。

Yet within a month, its only concrete plan had been shattered. As a signal of its determination to avoid 1930s-style protectionism, the G20 pushed for an outline agreement in the so-called Doha round of trade talks before year-end and pledged to refrain from new protectionist measures for 12 months. The former once again failed to materialise, with the US and the big emerging markets, notably India, failing to shift from entrenched positions. And the no-protectionism pledge lasted less than 48 hours before Russia announced its intention to raise car tariffs. The promise has since been violated further by India, Indonesia, Brazil and Argentina. A quarter of the G20 broke its word within a month. This is not the way to build credibility.

不过,仅1个月内,此次峰会唯一的一个具体计划也已落空。作为决心避免上世纪30年代式贸易保护主义的信号,G20峰会努力推动在今年底前达成多哈(Doha)回合贸易谈判的框架协议,并承诺在未来12个月内不实施新的贸易保护主义措施。前者再次落空,因为美国和大型新兴市场(尤其是印度)未能改变自身的顽固立场。同时,不实行贸易保护主义的承诺还未持续两天,俄罗斯就宣布计划提高汽车关税。此后,此次峰会上的承诺又受到了印度、印尼、巴西和阿根廷的进一步破坏。1个月内,四分之一的20国集团成员国违背了自己的承诺。这可不是建立可信度的方式。

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