Late on election night four years ago, Donald Trump saw the so-called “red mirage” and pounced. His vote count was still ahead of Joe Biden in several swing states. Around 2.30am he appeared before White House cameras to declare victory. Any ballots counted after then would be fraudulent, Trump said.
四年前大选之夜的深夜，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)看到了所谓的“红色海市蜃楼”，并扑了上去。在几个摇摆州，他的得票数仍然领先于乔•拜登(Joe Biden)。凌晨两点半左右，他出现在白宫的摄像机前宣布胜利。特朗普说，在此之后计算的任何选票都是伪造的。
His aim was to exploit the fact that far more Democrats than Republicans had voted by mail, which meant the “blue shift” would take time to show up. It was another three days before Pennsylvania completed its tally and Biden was declared the winner.
他的目的是利用更多民主党比共和党通过邮寄投票的事实，这意味着“蓝色转变”需要时间才能显现。宾夕法尼亚完成计票并宣布拜登获胜还需另外三天。
So began Trump’s “stolen election” crusade that erupted two months and more than 60 failed lawsuits later in the January 6 storming of Capitol Hill. The crusade is still going. Trump’s 2024 campaign is based explicitly on the claim that he was cheated of the presidency four years ago. Should we brace ourselves for another contested election — or worse?
特朗普的“被盗选举”运动始于两个月前，之后进行了60多次失败的诉讼，最终在1月6日冲击国会山(Capitol Hill)。这场运动仍在继续。特朗普的2024年竞选明确基于他四年前被剥夺总统职位的主张。我们是否应该为另一场有争议的选举——甚至更糟的情况做好准备？
History does not repeat itself, as Mark Twain quipped; but it often rhymes. According to constitutional lawyers, this election is likely to yield one of two “day after” crises. The first possibility, if Kamala Harris is pronounced winner, would trigger a legal and information war to stop her victory from being certified. Only an improbable Harris victory of at least five of the seven swing states might pre-empt that.
正如马克•吐温(Mark Twain)所说，历史不会重演，但常常会押韵。根据宪法律师的说法，这次选举可能会引发两种“次日”危机。第一种可能性是，如果卡玛拉•哈里斯(Kamala Harris)被宣布为获胜者，将引发一场法律和信息战，以阻止她的胜利被认证。只有在七个摇摆州中至少五个中卡玛拉•哈里斯的胜利，才可能预防这种情况发生。
The other scenario, in the event of a Trump victory, would begin on January 21, the day after he was sworn in. Constitutional experts are far more worried about what Trump 2.0 would do with his renewed grip on power than on his ability to overturn a Harris win.
另一种情况是，如果特朗普获胜，将从他宣誓就职的第二天1月21日开始。宪法专家更担心特朗普2.0在重新掌握权力后会做出什么，而不是他有能力推翻哈里斯的胜利。
“If Harris wins even by a small margin, there is very unlikely to be a repeat of January 6,” says Rosa Brooks of Georgetown Law Center. “This time Trump will not be president, the certification process is much stronger and Biden won’t tolerate violence.”
“如果哈里斯即使以微弱优势获胜，发生1月6日的事件的可能性非常小，”乔治城大学法学中心的罗莎•布鲁克斯(Rosa Brooks)说道。“这一次特朗普将不再是总统，认证程序更加严格，拜登也不会容忍暴力。”
Yet there would still be real danger in a narrow Harris win. In contrast to Biden’s 2020 victory, which had been telegraphed in poll averages for months, Trump and Harris are within decimal points of each other in most critical states. Biden took 6mn more votes than Trump and won the electoral college by a margin of 306-232. Even so, it still took nine days for the Arizona result to be declared and 16 days in Georgia. And Biden’s clean victory did nothing to stop Republican election denialism from taking hold.
然而，即使哈里斯险胜，仍然存在真正的危险。与拜登在2020年的胜利形成鲜明对比，拜登的胜利在民意调查中已经几个月来被预示，特朗普和哈里斯在大多数关键州的得票率相差不到百分之一。拜登比特朗普多得了600万张选票，并以306-232的优势赢得了选举团。即便如此，亚利桑那州的结果仍然花了九天才宣布，佐治亚州则花了16天。而拜登的干净胜利并没有阻止共和党对选举的否认主义蔓延。