美国终止对伊朗石油出口的豁免意味着什么？

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{"url":"https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/ftlabs-audio-rss-bucket.prod/5c14b88e-651b-11e9-a79d-04f350474d62.mp3","text":[[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":12.858701,"text":"The US has stepped up pressure on Tehran by deciding to <ft-content type=\"http://www.ft.com/ontology/content/Article\" url=\"http://api.ft.com/content/ad4647f2-649b-11e9-9adc-98bf1d35a056\">end sanctions waivers</ft-content> that have allowed big economic powers to continue importing crude from Iran, a move that raises questions about the ability of other oil producers to fill the gap. "},{"start":26.361964,"text":"The move helped push up the price of <ft-content type=\"http://www.ft.com/ontology/content/Article\" url=\"http://api.ft.com/content/52f6df92-6571-11e9-9adc-98bf1d35a056\" title=\"www.ft.com\">Brent crude</ft-content>, the international benchmark, which climbed above $74 a barrel for the first time in six months this week."}],[{"start":34.615239,"text":"<h3><strong>Can the US really cut Iran’s oil exports to zero?</strong></h3>"}],[{"start":null,"text":"The US on Monday restated its desire to bring Iran’s oil exports down to “zero” — an ambition it announced last November when it reintroduced sweeping anti-Iran economic sanctions. "},{"start":null,"text":"Although exports have dropped since then they did not vanish, partly because of the exemptions that will now be phased out."}],[{"start":39.052727,"text":"Iran’s exports averaged about 2.5m barrels a day before the US decision to reimpose curbs, a consequence of US president Donald Trump’s decision to abandon a nuclear pact with Tehran. "},{"start":43.298849,"text":"In the past five months its exports have dropped to 1m-1.3m barrels per day, according to estimates by consultancy FGE Energy. "},{"start":52.048012,"text":"Tanker-tracking websites suggest Iran has been secretly exporting rather more: about 1.9m b/d. "},{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":59.302162,"text":"Most of the exports in recent months have gone to five main buyers: India, China, South Korea, Japan and Turkey. "},{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":65.554228,"text":"“China has already indicated its opposition to the US implementation of unilateral sanctions, so it is probably unlikely to see Iranian exports fall to zero,” said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS Wealth Management. "},{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":79.049394,"text":"But other countries could comply with the US sanctions, meaning a drop below 1m b/d is expected, he said."}],[{"start":null,"text":"<ft-content type=\"http://www.ft.com/ontology/content/Video\" url=\"http://api.ft.com/content/49c418f8-65cd-4695-a2fc-7059d836b9b1\" data-embedded=\"true\"></ft-content><br/><h3><strong>Is the market prepared to meet the shortfall?</strong></h3>"}],[{"start":106.551713,"text":"Opec producers and their allies outside the cartel have curbed production since January to bring the oil market into balance after supplies swelled at the end of 2018, so there is room for manoeuvre."}],[{"start":117.795942,"text":"The US said it had spoken to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to ensure there was “sufficient supply”. "},{"start":124.051171,"text":"According to the US energy department, rising US production, together with Opec’s ability to produce more, means there is adequate spare capacity. "},{"start":132.554325,"text":"Saudi Arabia is producing below 10m b/d but officials say it is able to consistently pump 1m b/d more than this."}],[{"start":141.052529,"text":"“This [US energy department] assessment is giving the Trump administration a false sense of security,” said analysts at Energy Aspects, a consultancy. "},{"start":149.052824,"text":"Not only could there be a mismatch in the number of barrels needed, but also in the different crude grades required by the market, they said."}],[{"start":156.548849,"text":"The potential for supply disruption in politically volatile producing countries such as Libya and Venezuela is an additional risk. "},{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":null,"text":"<h3><strong>What are the challenges for Saudi Arabia?</strong></h3>"}],[{"start":165.296952,"text":"Saudi Arabia will have to tread carefully with its Opec peers and allies outside the cartel. "},{"start":187.711044,"text":"Opec’s largest producer, it stepped up output last year because it expected the Trump administration to reimpose sanctions on Iran. "},{"start":195.716371,"text":"But the US decision to maintain the waivers for some buyers left the kingdom feeling hard done-by."}],[{"start":201.210294,"text":"It also had to face the ire of fellow Opec members, which were equally dismayed by the US waivers and partly blamed Saudi Arabia for the actions of its close ally."}],[{"start":204.473192,"text":"This time people familiar with Saudi Arabia’s energy policy say any increase in the kingdom’s production will only occur once Iranian volumes fall. "},{"start":212.976256,"text":"Saudi Arabia is going to be more cautious and will not increase output unilaterally, they said. "},{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":218.723785,"text":"The Saudi government said it would “co-ordinate with fellow oil producers to ensure adequate supplies”."}],[{"start":170.686841,"text":"Russia, which formed an <ft-content type=\"http://www.ft.com/ontology/content/Article\" url=\"http://api.ft.com/content/aa39b74c-4f0c-11e8-ac41-759eee1efb74\" title=\"www.ft.com\">oil alliance with Opec</ft-content> last year, has sought to step up oil output in recent months in order to generate more revenue for its producers and might therefore welcome action to raise supplies."}],[{"start":225.218641,"text":"<h3><strong>What does it mean for oil prices?</strong></h3>"}],[{"start":226.726947,"text":"The US government played down the risk that oil prices would soar as it toughened its stance on Iran. "},{"start":231.010197,"text":"A US official told reporters on Monday: “The market is well supplied, and we are confident it will continue to be well supplied.”"},{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":237.005034,"text":"Energy sector analysts say an increase in production to offset Iranian supplies would thin out the market’s capacity buffers, limiting the scope for producers to pump more — and thus keep a lid on prices — in the event of further supply disruptions."}],[{"start":null,"text":"<div class=\"pic\"><img src=\"https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http://com.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com/372c0fd0-65e9-11e9-9adc-98bf1d35a056?source=ftchinese&fit=scale-down&width=700\"></div>"}],[{"start":250.25375,"text":"“There are huge risks to supply around the world,” said Gary Ross, chief executive of Black Gold Investors and a longtime oil market watcher. "},{"start":259.255607,"text":"“The world will have a sliver of production capacity to deal with anything unexpected [but] there are more sanctions coming in Venezuela, the situation in Nigeria is precarious. "},{"start":268.754674,"text":"Libya too is uncertain.”"},{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":270.254714,"text":"Brent crude is likely to reach $75 to $80 a barrel but it could easily surpass this level, said Mr Ross. "},{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":278.225681,"text":"<h3><strong>Could it hit the US economy?</strong></h3>"}],[{"start":280.732361,"text":"The impact of oil price changes on US economic growth has been muted by the <ft-content type=\"http://www.ft.com/ontology/content/Article\" url=\"http://api.ft.com/content/100c2cae-61cb-11e9-a27a-fdd51850994c\">shale boom</ft-content> of the past decade, which sharply cut the country’s net oil imports. "},{"start":289.726552,"text":"Any impact on consumption via rising fuel costs will be offset by the boost it offers to the oil industry. "},{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":296.481651,"text":"However rising fuel prices will raise concern among US consumers, especially with the peak summer driving season approaching."}],[{"start":303.478845,"text":"The average price of petrol has already risen to $2.828 per gallon last week, its highest level since last October, and up 56 cents a gallon since the end of 2018. "},{"start":314.725975,"text":"If it went up another 10 cents a gallon, it would hit its highest level for five years."}],[{"start":319.476143,"text":"President Donald Trump has repeatedly complained about Opec keeping the price of oil high, but if fuel does jump sharply higher over the next few months, the administration could draw some of the blame."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}]]}

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美国终止对伊朗石油出口的豁免意味着什么？

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美国终止对伊朗石油出口的豁免意味着什么？

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